The 2026 outlook
Will line play and quarterback consistency survive the Big Ten's deepest tier of contenders?
UCLA opens No. 59 nationally and No. 14 of 18 in the Big Ten. The 4M baseline rates the roster 1.5 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 5.6 regular-season wins.
UCLA sits near the model's break-even line, where quarterback development and close-game execution matter more than brand. A bowl is attainable, but the margin is too thin to assume last year's record—or a splashy transfer class—will repeat without supporting efficiency.
There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.
The schedule grades No. 29 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether UCLA beats its 5.6-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachBob Chesney21–6 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityNew head coachReplaces Deshaun Foster
Portal ledger43 in · 29 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#14Ty DieffenbachCalabasas, CAQB2.9 pts50% starter · 64% conf.6′6″ · 227 lbTransfer infrom Cal Poly
#0Leland SmithHouston, TXWR0.8 pts54% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 218 lbTransfer infrom San José State
#3Wayne KnightSmyrna, DERB0.8 pts80% role · 76% conf.5′7″ · 193 lbTransfer infrom James Madison
#11Landon EllisOrange, VAWR0.7 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 217 lbTransfer infrom James Madison
#1Aidan MizellOrlando, FLWR0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 177 lbTransfer infrom Florida
#2Brian Rowe Jr.Charlotte, NCWR0.6 pts49% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 168 lbTransfer infrom South Carolina
#89Josh PhiferPeachtree City, GATE0.6 pts42% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 258 lbTransfer infrom James Madison
#4Semaj MorganDetroit, MIWR0.6 pts48% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 174 lbTransfer infrom Michigan
#52Carter SweazieSterling, VAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 342 lbTransfer infrom James Madison
#54Derek OsmanMercer Island, WAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom Harvard
#65Hall SchmidtGig Harbor, WAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 317 lbTransfer infrom Boise State
#68Jordan DavisFairburn, GAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 328 lbTransfer infrom South Alabama
#76Mack IndestadLemont, ILOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 311 lbTransfer infrom Eastern Michigan
#51Riley RobellHarrisburg, PAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 284 lbTransfer infrom James Madison
#71Sean Na'aInglewood, CAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 308 lbTransfer infrom Arizona State
#97Aiden GobairaFairfax, VADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 261 lbTransfer infrom James Madison
#90Amier WashingtonOrange, TXDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 286 lbTransfer infrom Texas Tech
#33Dallin HaveaOrem, UTDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 247 lbTransfer infrom Utah Tech
#92Darold DeNgohePhiladelphia, PADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 312 lbTransfer infrom Rutgers
#99Maxwell RoyDelran, NJDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 320 lbTransfer infrom Ohio State
#15Sahir WestBaltimore, MDDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 279 lbTransfer infrom James Madison
#95Tyson FordSt. Louis, MODL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 321 lbTransfer infrom California
#85Brayden LoftinOmaha, NETE0.5 pts43% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 231 lbTransfer infrom Kansas State
#15Marcus HarrisEastvale, CAWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 192 lbTransfer infrom Washington
#47Harry LodgeCambridge, MATE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 247 lbTransfer infrom Wake Forest
#88Stevie Amar Jr.Oxnard, CATE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 236 lbTransfer infrom Boston College
#21Dante LovettCrofton, MDDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 198 lbTransfer infrom Virginia Tech
#23Jhase McMillanHouston, TXDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 170 lbTransfer infrom Montana State
#12Malik HartfordCincinnati, OHDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 193 lbTransfer infrom Ohio State
#28Mason RiveraTracy, CADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Cal Poly
#18Osiris GilbertDuluth, GADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 179 lbTransfer infrom UConn
#27Ta'Shawn JamesOklahoma City, OKDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 211 lbTransfer infrom Iowa State
#6Tao JohnsonIdaho Falls, IDDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 194 lbTransfer infrom Utah
#39Anthony SaccaDelran, NJLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 242 lbTransfer infrom Notre Dame
#56Drew SpinogattiWinter Garden, FLLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 229 lbTransfer infrom James Madison
#19Ryan McCullochArcadia, CALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 258 lbTransfer infrom California
#10Sammy OmosighoCrandall, TXLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 239 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma
#22Dylan LeePhoenix, AZRB0.3 pts45% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 216 lbTransfer infrom Iowa State
#45Chase BarrySan Juan Capistrano, CAP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State
#35Curtis GerrandMelbourne, VICP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 186 lbTransfer infrom Sam Houston
#9Nico IamaleavaLong Beach, CAQB2.5 pts49% starter · 76% conf.6′5″ · 215 lbReturning
#7Mikey MatthewsIrvine, CAWR0.7 pts57% role · 64% conf.5′8″ · 182 lbReturning
#82Noah Fox-FloresTacoma, WATE0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 244 lbReturning
#70Caleb WalkerVisalia, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 311 lbReturning
#55Eugene BrooksLas Vegas, NVOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 348 lbReturning
#58Jaylan JeffersScottsdale, AZOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 313 lbReturning
#66Jensen SomervilleLehi, UTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 321 lbReturning
#74Julian ArmellaMiami, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 333 lbReturning
#72K.D. ArnoldAtmore, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 304 lbReturning
#75Nehemiah JohnsonYorba Linda, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 342 lbReturning
#64Sam YoonPasadena, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 315 lbReturning
#55A.J. FuimaonoLas Vegas, NVDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 315 lbReturning
#44Ashton SandersPasadena, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 296 lbReturning
#24Cole CogshellPasadena, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 249 lbReturning
#88Grant BuckeyBakersfield, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 266 lbReturning
#11Nico DavillierMaumelle, ARDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 274 lbReturning
#29Robert James IIIInglewood, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 302 lbReturning
#54Ty PartlowTeaneck, NJDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 254 lbReturning
#21Jaivian ThomasOakland, CARB0.6 pts67% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 198 lbReturning
#6Anthony WoodsPalmdale, CARB0.5 pts63% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 192 lbReturning
#12Jace BrownLong Beach, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 203 lbReturning
#23Jackson MeehanWestlake Village, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 172 lbReturning
#86Jalen Saint PaulCarlsbad, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#83Russell WeirCorona Del Mar, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 201 lbReturning
#20Shane RosenthalNewbury Park, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 192 lbReturning
#87Dylan SimsQueen Creek, AZTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 232 lbReturning
#44Peter BarioSherman Oaks, CATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 241 lbReturning
#7Aaron WilliamsMoreno Valley, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 183 lbReturning
#43Brett BarrySan Diego, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 184 lbReturning
#31Chase ColemanFrisco, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 166 lbReturning
#4Cole MartinPasadena, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 185 lbReturning
#45Jamier JohnsonPasadena, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning
#37Joshua DixonReseda, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 193 lbReturning
#25Kuron Jabari Jr.Winchester, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 191 lbReturning
#14LaRue Zamorano IIICorona, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 198 lbReturning
#3Robert Stafford IIIMelbourne, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 189 lbReturning
#2Rodrick PleasantGardena, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbReturning
#1Scooter JacksonCompton, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 191 lbReturning
#22Ty LeeGarden Grove, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 204 lbReturning
#30Zeke JohnsonRedondo Beach, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 202 lbReturning
#0Donavyn PellotLas Vegas, NVLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 226 lbReturning
#53Jacob ReisPalos Verdes, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 217 lbReturning
#9Jalen WoodsCompton, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 224 lbReturning
#41Jewelous WallsPittsburg, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 191 lbReturning
#17Lucien HollandLos Angeles, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbReturning
#40Mone MalafuKapaa, HILB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 252 lbReturning
#20Scott TaylorLos Angeles, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 241 lbReturning
#36Wyatt MosierYorba Linda, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 226 lbReturning
#33Karson CoxVictorville, CARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 213 lbReturning
#32Troy LeigberLaguna Hills, CARB0.3 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 211 lbReturning
#15Mateen BhaghaniSan Diego, CAPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.6′0″ · 178 lbReturning
#19Lennox MillerSydney, NSWP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 222 lbReturning
#30Halakilangi Muagututi'aLaie, HILS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 237 lbReturning
#50Salem Abdul-WahabFontana, CALS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 255 lbReturning
#17Colton GuminoArlington Heights, ILQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′0″ · 196 lbReturning
#10Madden IamaleavaLong Beach, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′2″ · 197 lbReturning
#67Cam JensenLittleton, COOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 283 lbNew / unverified
#69Cooper JavorskyLadera Ranch, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 307 lbNew / unverified
#77JD DeanCanton, MAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 289 lbNew / unverified
#61Lucas HickeyProsper, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#78Michael McDonaldLos Angeles, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 353 lbNew / unverified
#62Michael PriceHuntsville, ALOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 297 lbNew / unverified
#73Quinn BuckeyBakersfield, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 306 lbNew / unverified
#63Zaheer YoungSan Francisco, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#59Gavin BlumSan Juan Capistrano, CADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 279 lbNew / unverified
#96James MoffatLos Angeles, CADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 260 lbNew / unverified
#94Marcus AlmadaCranston, RIDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 294 lbNew / unverified
#24Jonah SmithRancho Santa Margarita, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#81Kenneth Moore IIIStockton, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 172 lbNew / unverified
#48Major PrideStockton, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 203 lbNew / unverified
#46Markus KierMission Viejo, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#26CJ LavenderFontana, CADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 183 lbNew / unverified
#32Derrick BarksdaleRock Hill, SCDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′8″ · 181 lbNew / unverified
#35Logan HirouRancho Santa Margarita, CADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 193 lbNew / unverified
#49Malaki Soliai-TuiKahuku, HILB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 231 lbNew / unverified
#57Matt MuasauBellflower, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#18DJ BordeauxAurora, COQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#29Jayden FoxDenver, CORB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#31Mateo OroscoSan Diego, CAPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 173 lbNew / unverified
#44Giancarlo CereghinoMoraga, CALS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 204 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1CaliforniaNon-conference · California Memorial Stadium · 4M 25–26 · 49% win
AwaySep 510:30 PM EDT · model ↗2
San Diego StateNon-conference · Rose Bowl · 4M 24–25 · 52% win
HomeSep 127:15 PM EDT · model ↗3
PurdueConference · Rose Bowl · 4M 23–29 · 62% win
HomeSep 1911:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
MarylandConference · SECU Stadium · 4M 24–26 · 46% win
AwaySep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
OregonConference · Autzen Stadium · 4M 16–36 · 14% win
AwayOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
WisconsinConference · Rose Bowl · 4M 24–26 · 55% win
HomeOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
Michigan StateConference · Rose Bowl · 4M 22–29 · 65% win
HomeOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
NevadaNon-conference · Rose Bowl · 4M 19–32 · 75% win
HomeOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
MinnesotaConference · Huntington Bank Stadium · 4M 24–28 · 42% win
AwayNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
IllinoisConference · Rose Bowl · 4M 27–25 · 45% win
HomeNov 139:00 PM EST · model ↗12
MichiganConference · Michigan Stadium · 4M 20–32 · 26% win
AwayNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
USCConference · Rose Bowl · 4M 31–22 · 30% win
HomeNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case3 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint6 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case8 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about UCLA diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The number is below a full possession and UCLA's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionWill line play and quarterback consistency survive the Big Ten's deepest tier of contenders?