The 2026 outlook
Will line play and quarterback consistency survive the Big Ten's deepest tier of contenders?
Washington opens No. 17 nationally and No. 6 of 18 in the Big Ten. The 4M baseline rates the roster 13.7 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 6.5 regular-season wins.
Washington has a credible playoff profile, but not enough separation to absorb repeated mistakes. Its best version can win a high-level matchup; the question is whether that version appears often enough to navigate the conference race without spending the playoff margin for error too early.
The roster grades comfortably above the national average. The personnel question is not whether there is talent; it is whether new starters can inherit the high-leverage jobs—quarterback decisions, pass protection, third-down coverage and pass-rush production—without an early efficiency drop.
The schedule grades No. 26 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Washington beats its 6.5-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachJedd Fisch31–32 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger14 in · 23 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#7Elijah BrownHuntington Beach, CAQB1.4 pts28% starter · 76% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Stanford
#5Christian MossKennesaw, GAWR0.7 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Kennesaw State
#55Kolt DieterichRiesel, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 295 lbTransfer infrom Sam Houston
#17Jayden LimarLake Stevens, WARB0.5 pts58% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Oregon
#12Logan GeorgePocatello, IDEDGE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 264 lbTransfer infrom Ohio State
#33Darin ConleyKansas City, MODL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbTransfer infrom Ball State
#58DeSean WattsFresno, CADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 313 lbTransfer infrom Sacramento State
#18Kai McClendonGulfport, MSDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 334 lbTransfer infrom Mississippi State
#18Bodpegn MillerMansfield, OHWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Ohio State
#3Emmanuel KarnleyAntioch, CACB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 188 lbTransfer infrom Virginia
#22Trey CooleyRaleigh, NCRB0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 208 lbTransfer infrom Troy
#95Tyler RoblesEncinitas, CAPK0.3 pts38% role · 52% conf.5′7″ · 178 lbTransfer infrom Texas State
#38Hunter McKeeSpokane, WAPK0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 211 lbTransfer infrom Eastern Washington
#93Hunter GreenRedmond, WAP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom San Diego State
#1Demond Williams Jr.Chandler, AZQB3.8 pts71% starter · 76% conf.5′11″ · 191 lbReturning
#2Dezmen RoebuckMarana, AZWR0.8 pts55% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 184 lbReturning
#86Decker DeGraafSan Dimas, CATE0.7 pts52% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 249 lbReturning
#3Rashid WilliamsBrentwood, CAWR0.7 pts54% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#8Chris LawsonSan Francisco, CAWR0.7 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 184 lbReturning
#44Kade EldridgeLynden, WATE0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbReturning
#67Aidan AndersonOlympia, WAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 318 lbReturning
#73Champ TaulealeaMilpitas, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 344 lbReturning
#74Drew AzzopardiPacifica, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 322 lbReturning
#77Elishah JackettOrange, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 291 lbReturning
#56Geirean HatchettFerndale, WAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 306 lbReturning
#65Jack ShafferBismarck, NDOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 351 lbReturning
#78Jake FloresMission Viejo, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbReturning
#72John MillsSan Francisco, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 338 lbReturning
#70Justin HylkemaSanta Clara, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 326 lbReturning
#66Landen HatchettFerndale, WAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 314 lbReturning
#75Lowen Colman-BrusaSeattle, WAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 326 lbReturning
#54Parker CrossSeattle, WAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 292 lbReturning
#68Soane FaasoloEast Palo Alto, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 320 lbReturning
#52Devin HydeMenlo Park, CAEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 253 lbReturning
#44Hayden MooreParker, COEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 238 lbReturning
#91Isaiah WardOntario, CAEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 238 lbReturning
#48Jacob LanePuyallup, WAEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 256 lbReturning
#99Russell Davis IILong Beach, CAEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 231 lbReturning
#55Victor Sanchez HernandezMukilteo, WAEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 256 lbReturning
#90Elinneus DavisMoorhead, MNDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 312 lbReturning
#98Omar KhanCypress, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 312 lbReturning
#4Jordan WashingtonLong Beach, CARB0.5 pts52% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 181 lbReturning
#82Deji AjoseHercules, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 197 lbReturning
#35Jace BurtonPortland, ORWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 168 lbReturning
#16Justice WilliamsWestlake Village, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 219 lbReturning
#45Austin SimmonsAlbany, ORTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 251 lbReturning
#85Baron NaoneWest Linn, ORTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 263 lbReturning
#89Charlie CrowellBend, ORTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 260 lbReturning
#6Dylan RobinsonLa Verne, CACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbReturning
#26Elias JohnsonTualatin, ORCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 179 lbReturning
#30Kayden GreeneSammamish, WACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 188 lbReturning
#8Ramonz Adams Jr.Smithville, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 176 lbReturning
#7Alex McLaughlinChandler, AZS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 204 lbReturning
—CJ ChristianNormal, ILS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 209 lbReturning
#31Paul Mencke Jr.Cibolo, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 201 lbReturning
#15Rahim Wright IIFontana, CAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbReturning
#2Rahshawn ClarkSeattle, WAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 198 lbReturning
#4Rylon Dillard-AllenPhoenix, AZS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 187 lbReturning
#25Donovan Robinson Jr.Chicago, ILLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 222 lbReturning
#9Jacob ManuSanta Ana, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 222 lbReturning
#0Taariq Al-UqdahLos Angeles, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 236 lbReturning
#10Xe'ree AlexanderAuburn, WALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 238 lbReturning
#23Zaydrius Rainey-SaleTacoma, WALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 216 lbReturning
#27Beck WalkerSammamish, WARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 216 lbReturning
#20D'Aryhian ClemonsSpanaway, WARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbReturning
#29Julian McMahanSan Ramon, CARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 234 lbReturning
#21Quaid CarrRiverside, CARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 189 lbReturning
#32Ryken MoonBellevue, WARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 214 lbReturning
#45Luke DunneBenalla, VICP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 214 lbReturning
#33Ryan KeanCorona, CALS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 216 lbReturning
#9Dash BeierlyTemecula, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′0″ · 213 lbReturning
#10Treston McMillanMililani, HIQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.5′11″ · 213 lbReturning
#71Ah Deong YangPuyallup, WAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 343 lbNew / unverified
#79Dominic HarrisLas Vegas, NVOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 356 lbNew / unverified
#76Kodi GreeneRenton, WAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 321 lbNew / unverified
#11Ramzak FrueanNanakuli, HIEDGE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 226 lbNew / unverified
#50David SchwerzelSeattle, WADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#5Derek Colman-BrusaSeattle, WADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#54JD HillMission Viejo, CADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#94Joseph PekoCalabasas, CADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 315 lbNew / unverified
#56Ta'a MaluTacoma, WADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#64Tufanua Ionatana Umu-CaisEnglewood, CODL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 312 lbNew / unverified
#81Asa ThompsonSammamish, WAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#80Blaise LaVistaLibertyville, ILWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 197 lbNew / unverified
#11Jordan ClaySan Antonio, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 207 lbNew / unverified
#6Mason JamesNorman, OKWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#12Trez DavisWest Monroe, LAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#84Kekua AumuaHauula, HITE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 266 lbNew / unverified
#88Sam VyhlidalLake Oswego, ORTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 222 lbNew / unverified
#17Elijah DurrLos Angeles, CACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 186 lbNew / unverified
#24Jeron JonesMission Viejo, CACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 177 lbNew / unverified
#28Ksani JilesInglewood, CACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 193 lbNew / unverified
#13Rahsjon DuncanOakland, CACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 186 lbNew / unverified
#21Gavin DayLas Vegas, NVS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#40Ezaya TokioOceanside, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#57Jesse EwellSan Clemente, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#15Derek ZammitLincoln Park, NJQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′0″ · 208 lbNew / unverified
#30Ansu SanoeGresham, ORRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 241 lbNew / unverified
#34Brian Bonner Jr.Santa Clarita, CARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 196 lbNew / unverified
#36C.J. WallaceManhattan Beach, CAPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 182 lbNew / unverified
#42Ben FerberDelray Beach, FLLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Washington StateNon-conference · Husky Stadium · 4M 20–31 · 72% win
HomeSep 64:00 PM EDT · model ↗2
Utah StateNon-conference · Husky Stadium · 4M 18–34 · 81% win
HomeSep 123:30 PM EDT · model ↗3
Eastern WashingtonNon-conference · Husky Stadium · 4M 11–42 · 96% win
HomeSep 197:15 PM EDT · model ↗4MinnesotaConference · Husky Stadium · 4M 20–32 · 74% win
HomeSep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
USCConference · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · 4M 24–29 · 39% win
AwayOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
IowaConference · Husky Stadium · 4M 23–28 · 62% win
HomeOct 99:00 PM EDT · model ↗7
PurdueConference · Ross-Ade Stadium · 4M 31–22 · 69% win
AwayOct 168:00 PM EDT · model ↗9
NebraskaConference · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) · 4M 29–24 · 60% win
AwayOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
Penn StateConference · Husky Stadium · 4M 25–28 · 57% win
HomeNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
Michigan StateConference · Spartan Stadium · 4M 31–21 · 71% win
AwayNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
IndianaConference · Husky Stadium · 4M 28–24 · 42% win
HomeNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
OregonConference · Autzen Stadium · 4M 21–31 · 29% win
AwayNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case4 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint7 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case9 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Washington diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The matchup preserves the talent edge, the opponent cannot create pressure with four, and the price has not already charged a contender tax.
The case rests on ranking, résumé or home-field narrative rather than a repeatable down-to-down advantage.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionWill line play and quarterback consistency survive the Big Ten's deepest tier of contenders?