The 2026 outlook
Does this team have the quarterback play and defensive depth to win the American?
Florida Atlantic opens No. 100 nationally and No. 9 of 14 in the American. The 4M baseline rates the roster 7.9 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 4.2 regular-season wins.
Florida Atlantic profiles as competitive but opponent-sensitive. It can win when the matchup protects its weak points, yet it does not have enough week-to-week talent separation to survive poor early-down offense, lost field position and a negative turnover margin at the same time.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule grades No. 91 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Florida Atlantic beats its 4.2-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachZach Kittley4–8 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger22 in · 30 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#6RJ Garcia IITampa, FLWR0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Bowling Green
#11Brooks JohnsonWeddington, NCTE0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom Coastal Carolina
#58Aiden JonesChester, VAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom VMI
#60Aqil Meredith-SmithElizabeth, NJOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom LIU Post
#73Kortez WinslowHumble, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom Lamar
#22Brady Tillman IIINewnan, GARB0.5 pts57% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Edward Waters
#13Jahmari Powell-WonsonBaltimore, MDWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Maryland
#88Marcus VinsonDallas, TXTE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom New Mexico
#26Amar ReynoldsFort Pierce, FLDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Illinois
#20Bo Simpson-NealyAltamonte Springs, FLDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Western Carolina
#12Jay CrableMassillon, OHDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom Ohio
#23JK JohnsonSt. Peters, MODB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State
#9Jonathan BaxNew Orleans, LADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom TCU
#31Kenyon GarnerOkeechobee, FLDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 238 lbTransfer infrom Livingstone
#16Wallace Foster IVNew Orleans, LADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom LSU
#18Joseph Sipp Jr.Tampa, FLLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom Kansas
#5Leonard FarrowMount Hope, WVRB0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Fairmont State
#91Reed ChandleyCanton, GAP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Georgia State
#41Collin RogersPrattville, ALPK0.3 pts38% role · 52% conf.6′4″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom SMU
#18Drew DevillierPlano, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′5″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Rice
#10Caden VeltkampBowling Green, KYQB4.9 pts94% starter · 76% conf.6′5″ · 236 lbReturning
#8Easton MesserLouisville, KYWR1.0 pts66% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbReturning
#9Dominique HenrySaint Augustine, FLWR0.8 pts56% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning
#0Branden HochFort Lauderdale, FLWR0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbReturning
#65Braden CunninghamOrange Park, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 315 lbReturning
#78Carson OsmusCamas, WAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 303 lbReturning
#57Ja'Kavion NonarBelle Glade, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 315 lbReturning
#77Keon RoheFrankfurtOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 310 lbReturning
#71Landon RapkiewiczNorth Palm Beach, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbReturning
#52Logan HusbandFort Lauderdale, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 295 lbReturning
#75Mauricio HindsPorters Lake, NSOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbReturning
#72Ovie DubrePowder Springs, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 325 lbReturning
#55Rain BanickLilburn, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbReturning
#62Vincent FiacableFort Wayne, INOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 320 lbReturning
#64Vincent ForneyBuford, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 275 lbReturning
#28Kaden Shields-DuttonOrlando, FLRB0.6 pts67% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 215 lbReturning
#13Earl Miller Jr.Riviera Beach, FLDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbReturning
#1CJ Doggette Jr.Pickerington, OHDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 277 lbReturning
#62Enyce SledgeMonroe, LADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 320 lbReturning
#56Gabriel BirnbaumBoca Raton, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbReturning
#95Nimari BrantleyPompano Beach, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 280 lbReturning
#14Tycoolhill LumanMontreal, PQDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 264 lbReturning
#2Wilky DenaudStuart, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 285 lbReturning
#26Chase HanningLantana, FLWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbReturning
#8Chris Tooley IIIOrlando, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning
#37Dominick DavisNaples, FLS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 180 lbReturning
#22Jayden SweeneyBirmingham, ALS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning
#55Alexander KocherPembroke Pines, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 250 lbReturning
#4Damarius McGheePensacola, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 183 lbReturning
#0Damon AllenBelle Glade, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#36Darius SmithRiverview, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning
#3Derrick RogersOrlando, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 175 lbReturning
#5Deshaun BatisteNew Orleans, LADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 258 lbReturning
#11Gavench MarcelinHomestead, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbReturning
#18Jackson ForteWest Hills, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 260 lbReturning
#10Josh RobertsMelbourne, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbReturning
#39RJ LampkinSunrise, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#15Tyclean LumanMontreal, PQDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 280 lbReturning
#17Char'Quez LeeMiami, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbReturning
#43Hector ChavezMiami, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 215 lbReturning
#40Josiah FarmerOcala, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbReturning
#7Khmari JohnsonMemphis, TNLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbReturning
#6Leon Hart Jr.Miami Gardens, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbReturning
#35Tito NunezHomestead, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbReturning
#28Zyere HortonWoodstock, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbReturning
#21Ethan ErvinBuford, GARB0.4 pts55% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning
#20Joshua HarriottFort Lauderdale, FLRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbReturning
#49Alex GraceCincinnati, OHP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 200 lbReturning
#45Walker AdkinsonMount Dora, FLLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbReturning
#7Jordan MagwoodTampa, FLQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning
#15Michael ValentinoSarasota, FLQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbReturning
#1AJ JohnsonFort Lauderdale, FLTE0.4 pts29% role · 52% conf.6′4″ · 255 lbNew / unverified
#3Tucker HollowayAndrews, NCWR0.4 pts26% role · 52% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#51Aedyn BuchananGreensboro, NCOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 265 lbNew / unverified
#76Aiden FordDaytona Beach, FLOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#67Alejandro SchmittPembroke Pines, FLOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#74Ben GallowayPowder Springs, GAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
#70Jaylen GambleMontgomery, ALOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#63JJ RochfordLauderdale Lakes, FLOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 315 lbNew / unverified
#50Owen CheathamDurango, COOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 265 lbNew / unverified
#98Blake BurrisIrving, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 320 lbNew / unverified
#94Corey ClarkBirmingham, ALDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
#91Lebron EdmondCanton, MSDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#99Nate LovelaceTampa, FLDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#97Samuel BenoitLake Worth, FLDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 288 lbNew / unverified
#4Antojuan WoodyCamp Hill, ALWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#82Dveyoun Bonwell-WitteBrandon, SDWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#16Elijah WestPensacola, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 194 lbNew / unverified
#80Grayson GibsonOrlando, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#2Kelby ValsinArlington, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#17Nicsaint Joseph Jr.Miami, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
#83Spencer MartinHinsdale, ILWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#93Maika KurkowskiRockledge, FLTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#86Owen PollockSunbury, OHTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbNew / unverified
#87Peter CannonOrlando, FLTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#24Ahlston WareOrlando, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#34Brenden GuidrozNew Orleans, LADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#38Christopher Tank Jr.St. Petersburg, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#33Ja'Cari JacksonOrlando, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#30Justin WeatherallSalt Lake City, UTDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#25Kam HerringMemphis, TNDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#89Nick ToussaintWest Palm Beach, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#44Roman Garcia IVWagoner, OKDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 260 lbNew / unverified
#32Sean WilliamsAtlanta, GADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#45Thomas JacksonJacksonville, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#27Travis JacksonWellington, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#19Tyson RooksSaint Simons Island, GADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#42Larry SpringMiami, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#21Nate FischerSammamish, WALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#47Noah BustardOmaha, NELB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#12Jeremiah DaoudAllen, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#33Almari BrownLutz, FLRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′7″ · 171 lbNew / unverified
#34Germanuel TanelusFort Lauderdale, FLRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#96Lliam PetersonNaples, FLPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#46Blake ThomasViera, FLLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1FloridaNon-conference · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · 4M 19–34 · 21% win
AwaySep 57:45 PM EDT · model ↗2
NavyConference · FAU Stadium · 4M 29–27 · 46% win
HomeSep 127:30 PM EDT · model ↗3
Florida InternationalNon-conference · FAU Stadium · 4M 24–29 · 61% win
HomeSep 196:00 PM EDT · model ↗4UL MonroeNon-conference · Malone Stadium · 4M 29–25 · 59% win
AwaySep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
Texas SouthernNon-conference · FAU Stadium · 4M 16–38 · 89% win
HomeOct 36:00 PM EDT · model ↗7ArmyConference · Michie Stadium · 4M 24–30 · 38% win
AwayOct 1712:00 PM EDT · model ↗8
RiceConference · FAU Stadium · 4M 22–30 · 67% win
HomeOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
North TexasConference · DATCU Stadium · 4M 24–32 · 32% win
AwayOct 297:30 PM EDT · model ↗10
UTSAConference · FAU Stadium · 4M 29–24 · 39% win
HomeNov 58:00 PM EST · model ↗11
TulsaConference · Chapman Stadium · 4M 25–27 · 48% win
AwayNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
South FloridaConference · FAU Stadium · 4M 31–23 · 33% win
HomeNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
East CarolinaConference · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium · 4M 22–30 · 33% win
AwayNov 2712:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case2 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint4 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case6 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Florida Atlantic diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Florida Atlantic to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionDoes this team have the quarterback play and defensive depth to win the American?