Auburn 2026 Preview — No. 27 in the 4M 138

The 2026 outlook

Can the roster hold its efficiency when the schedule produces SEC-level stress almost every week?

Auburn opens No. 26 nationally and No. 11 of 16 in the SEC. The 4M baseline rates the roster 9.7 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 5.6 regular-season wins.

Auburn grades as a legitimate ranked team capable of punishing an overrated opponent. The distance to the playoff tier is consistency: one empty offensive quarter, a protection failure or a coverage bust can turn a controlled game into a coin flip.

There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.

The schedule is a defining variable: it projects No. 9 nationally, with No. 1 representing the hardest slate. Auburn can play good football and still finish below public expectations if it loses the possession battles in its highest-leverage games. This is why the 5.6-win projection may look conservative relative to the power rating.

Personnel command center

Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.

The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.

Head coachAlex Golesh23–15 over the available CFBD career window

Staff continuityNew head coachReplaces D.J. Durkin

Portal ledger39 in · 39 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.

Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.

Quarterback56

Offensive line51

Receivers53

Defensive front52

Secondary50

InByrum BrownQB · from South Florida · 4★

InDa'Shawn WomackEDGE · from Ole Miss · 4★

InBryson WashingtonRB · from Baylor · 4★

InWalter Mathis Jr.DL · from LSU · 4★

InCole BestIOL · from South Florida · 3★

InJeremiah KogerWR · from South Florida · 3★

InJoseph SimmonsOT · from James Madison · 3★

InStanton RamilOT · from Michigan State · 3★

InNate JohnsonEDGE · from Missouri · 3★

InJacob StrandOT · from Oregon State · 3★

InCole SkinnerIOL · from South Florida · 3★

InTristan Ti'aQB · from Oregon State · 3★

4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.

QBByrum Brown4.2 pts75% starter · usage + PPA + WEPA + portal role + QB starter probability

QBTristan Ti'a0.9 pts22% starter · usage + PPA + WEPA + portal role + QB starter probability

WRChas Nimrod0.7 pts53% expected role · usage + PPA + portal role

WRKeshaun Singleton0.7 pts52% expected role · usage + PPA + portal role

WRJeremiah Koger0.7 pts51% expected role · usage + PPA + portal role

RBJeremiah Cobb0.7 pts78% expected role · usage + PPA + WEPA + roster continuity

Find a player

PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity

#17Byrum BrownRaleigh, NCQB4.2 pts75% starter · 76% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom South Florida

#10Tristan Ti'aLivermore, CAQB0.9 pts22% starter · 76% conf.6′2″ · 217 lbTransfer infrom Oregon State

#5Chas NimrodBentonville, ARWR0.7 pts53% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom South Florida

#11Keshaun SingletonNorcross, GAWR0.7 pts52% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbTransfer infrom South Florida

#4Jeremiah KogerBaltimore, MDWR0.7 pts51% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 213 lbTransfer infrom South Florida

#19Jake JohnsonAthens, GATE0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom North Carolina

#8Christian NeptuneCantonment, FLWR0.7 pts52% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom South Florida

#30Bryson WashingtonFranklin, TXRB0.6 pts69% role · 76% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Baylor

#21Tae MeadowsRoanoke, ALRB0.6 pts72% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Troy

#13Kory PettigrewKathleen, GAWR0.6 pts42% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom South Florida

#1Jonathan EcholsFranklin, GATE0.6 pts40% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom South Florida

#72Cole BestWinter Park, FLOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 322 lbTransfer infrom South Florida

#56Cole SkinnerPoint Pleasant, NJOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 322 lbTransfer infrom South Florida

#52Deryc PlazzJacksonville, FLOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 320 lbTransfer infrom Miami

#76Jack LeyrerDallas, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 314 lbTransfer infrom Stanford

#69Jacob StrandCanby, OROL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Oregon State

#55Kenneth McManus IVWashington, DCOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom Akron

#65Stanton RamilBinghamton, NYOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 313 lbTransfer infrom Michigan State

#50TJ HedrickColumbia, MOOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom Ole Miss

#85Hunter HerringWest Monroe, LATE0.5 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom UL Monroe

#24Nykahi DavenportRoswell, GARB0.5 pts58% role · 76% conf.6′0″ · 212 lbTransfer infrom South Florida

#15Da'Shawn WomackBaltimore, MDEDGE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 265 lbTransfer infrom Ole Miss

#90Nate JohnsonGaffney, SCEDGE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 263 lbTransfer infrom Missouri

#94Cody SiglerNew Hope, ALDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 308 lbTransfer infrom Arkansas State

#99Saint FarriorDurham, NCDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 340 lbTransfer infrom App State

#10Walter Mathis Jr.Savannah, GADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 290 lbTransfer infrom LSU

#82Arlis BoardinghamVan Nuys, CATE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom Bowling Green

#83Xavier NewsomDetroit, MITE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 265 lbTransfer infrom Howard

#22Andre Jordan Jr.Federal Way, WACB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom UCLA

#21Gavin JenkinsLake Butler, FLCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom South Florida

#33Kamari ToddGardendale, ALCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom Chattanooga

#19Scrap RichardsonGreenville, GACB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Notre Dame

#14Shamar ArnouxFort Lauderdale, FLCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Florida State

#23Fred Gaskin IIIOcala, FLS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 202 lbTransfer infrom South Florida

#51Michael Matthews-CantyFredericksburg, VALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom Hampton

#3Locklan HewlettSaint Augustine, FLQB0.2 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom South Florida

#23Jeremiah CobbMontgomery, ALRB0.7 pts78% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 205 lbReturning

#84Ryan GheaMilton, GATE0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 250 lbReturning

#60Cade BarnettMonroeville, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbReturning

#57Harrison ClemmerBirmingham, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 279 lbReturning

#74Jacobe' WardSavannah, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 340 lbReturning

#58John Henry FlattDallas, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 310 lbReturning

#51Kail EllisCanton, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbReturning

#71Tai BusterKannapolis, NCOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 319 lbReturning

#6Bryce CainMobile, ALWR0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 165 lbReturning

#18J.J. FaulkHighland Home, ALEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbReturning

#41Jared SmithBirmingham, ALEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 260 lbReturning

#31Joe PhillipsShorter, ALEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 250 lbReturning

#13Chris MurrayWichita Falls, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 256 lbReturning

#35Dallas Walker IVNashville, TNDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 345 lbReturning

#11Darrion SmithAnnapolis, MDDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 263 lbReturning

#95Jourdin CrawfordBirmingham, ALDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 330 lbReturning

#96Malik AutryOpelika, ALDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 320 lbReturning

#29Omar Mabson IIAuburn, ALRB0.5 pts51% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 215 lbReturning

#81Erick SmithSelma, ALWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 205 lbReturning

#89Jake WhiteAuburn, ALWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbReturning

#18Sam TurnerLithonia, GAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbReturning

#80Will UptonJackson, MSWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 185 lbReturning

#40Hunter OusleyClanton, ALTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 245 lbReturning

#12Blake WoodbyUpper Marlboro, MDCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning

#27Devin WilliamsDacula, GACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 168 lbReturning

#46Grey ReebalsBirmingham, ALCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 188 lbReturning

#4Rayshawn PleasantWest Monroe, LACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbReturning

#3AnQuon FegansAnniston, ALS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning

#32Cade CarlsonEads, TNS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbReturning

#1Champ AnthonyFort Worth, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbReturning

#5Eric WintersEnterprise, ALS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbReturning

#20Jacoby MathewsPonchatoula, LAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning

#8Kaleb HarrisBessemer, ALS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 204 lbReturning

#0Sylvester Smith-ReedMunford, ALS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning

#45Antonio MelendezKissimmee, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 241 lbReturning

#16Bryce DeasPrince George County, MDLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning

#42Coleman GranberryAuburn, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 210 lbReturning

#6De'marcus RiddickClanton, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning

#9Elijah MelendezKissimmee, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 240 lbReturning

#52William Grier McDuffieBirmingham, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 217 lbReturning

#17Xavier AtkinsHouston, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbReturning

#22Alvin HendersonElba, ALRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 202 lbReturning

#26Christian BurnetteMobile, ALRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbReturning

#25Cole GambleBirmingham, ALRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 203 lbReturning

#38Alex McPhersonFort Payne, ALPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.5′9″ · 165 lbReturning

#93Charley SchwingerHouston, TXPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 175 lbReturning

#41Connor GibbsNew Orleans, LAPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbReturning

#14Hudson KaakSeymour, VICP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 222 lbReturning

#37John McGuireAlabaster, ALP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 202 lbReturning

#64Benton CanteyFort Worth, TXLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 217 lbReturning

#16John ColvinBirmingham, ALQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbReturning

#11Will MyersHomewood, ALQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.5′8″ · 190 lbReturning

#75Bear McWhorterKingston, GAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbNew / unverified

#79Jo SimmonsDover, DEOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 330 lbNew / unverified

#78Mason MathisPace, FLOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 320 lbNew / unverified

#73Mykall Lundy-FosterTallahassee, FLOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbNew / unverified

#70Parker PritchettFort Mitchell, ALOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 315 lbNew / unverified

#77Wilson ZiererMunichOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 315 lbNew / unverified

#29Jaquez WilkesWadley, ALEDGE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbNew / unverified

#40Chris WellsPetal, MSDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 227 lbNew / unverified

#98Corey WellsPetal, MSDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 325 lbNew / unverified

#91Tavian BranchTaylor, PADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 320 lbNew / unverified

#12Brady MarcheseAcworth, GAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbNew / unverified

#15Brian Williams Jr.Orlando, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 210 lbNew / unverified

#9DeShawn SpencerMobile, ALWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbNew / unverified

#86Jack EllenburgAtlanta, GAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 205 lbNew / unverified

#87DJ Broughton Jr.Mobile, ALTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbNew / unverified

#25Damonte TabbAlabaster, ALS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 192 lbNew / unverified

#28Shadrick Toodle Jr.Mobile, ALS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 210 lbNew / unverified

#26Wayne HenryBaltimore, MDS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbNew / unverified

#44Adam Balogoun-AliPalm Beach, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbNew / unverified

#24Shadarius ToodleMobile, ALLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbNew / unverified

#19Rhys BrushTampa, FLQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbNew / unverified

#36Stuart AndrewsMountain Brook, ALRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 185 lbNew / unverified

#39Max BourkeMelbourne, VICP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 215 lbNew / unverified

#49Hudson PowellNashville, TNLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbNew / unverified

#47Travis WakefieldNashville, TNLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbNew / unverified

2026 schedule

The path that shapes the projection.

The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.

WeekOpponentSiteDate / result

BaylorNon-conference · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · 4M 23–28 · 61% win

NeutralSep 53:30 PM EDT · model ↗2

Southern MissNon-conference · Jordan-Hare Stadium · 4M 17–33 · 81% win

HomeSep 127:30 PM EDT · model ↗3

FloridaConference · Jordan-Hare Stadium · 4M 23–27 · 58% win

HomeSep 197:00 PM EDT · model ↗4

VanderbiltConference · Jordan-Hare Stadium · 4M 26–27 · 52% win

HomeSep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5

TennesseeConference · Neyland Stadium · 4M 23–29 · 37% win

AwayOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗7

GeorgiaConference · Sanford Stadium · 4M 20–31 · 27% win

AwayOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8

LSUConference · Jordan-Hare Stadium · 4M 23–25 · 53% win

HomeOct 2412:00 PM EDT · model ↗9

Ole MissConference · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · 4M 22–29 · 36% win

AwayOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10

ArkansasConference · Jordan-Hare Stadium · 4M 23–31 · 66% win

HomeNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11

Mississippi StateConference · Davis Wade Stadium · 4M 27–23 · 58% win

AwayNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12

SamfordNon-conference · Jordan-Hare Stadium · 4M 8–43 · 98% win

HomeNov 213:30 PM EST · model ↗13

AlabamaConference · Bryant-Denny Stadium · 4M 21–28 · 36% win

AwayNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗

Range of outcomes

The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.

Floor case3 wins

Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.

4M midpoint6 wins

The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.

Ceiling case8 wins

Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.

The betting lens

Price and matchup decide the play.

No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Auburn diverges from the football conditions required to cover.

Back them when

The number is below a full possession and Auburn's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.

Pass or fade when

A difficult opponent is paired with short rest, uncertain quarterback availability or a line that assumes best-case continuity.

Watch first

Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.

Season-defining questionCan the roster hold its efficiency when the schedule produces SEC-level stress almost every week?