The 2026 outlook
Can this team separate in the country's most compressed conference race?
Cincinnati opens No. 62 nationally and No. 12 of 16 in the Big 12. The 4M baseline rates the roster 1.1 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 4.8 regular-season wins.
Cincinnati sits near the model's break-even line, where quarterback development and close-game execution matter more than brand. A bowl is attainable, but the margin is too thin to assume last year's record—or a splashy transfer class—will repeat without supporting efficiency.
There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.
The schedule grades No. 53 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Cincinnati beats its 4.8-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachScott Satterfield28–34 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger23 in · 23 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#10Liam O'BrienBoulder, COQB2.3 pts40% starter · 64% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Pennsylvania
#4JC French IVRoswell, GAQB1.2 pts23% starter · 76% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Georgia Southern
#9Malachi HenryVan Buren, ARWR0.7 pts59% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Central Arkansas
#2Larenzo FennerIndependence, MOWR0.7 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 181 lbTransfer infrom South Dakota
#8Cade WolfordJackson, OHWR0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Kent State
#7Zylan PerryFranklin, LARB0.6 pts69% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 212 lbTransfer infrom Louisiana
#3Cole TabbFort Walton Beach, FLRB0.5 pts61% role · 76% conf.5′8″ · 203 lbTransfer infrom Stanford
#11Chidera OtutuPflugerville, TXDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom UTSA
#95Josh HoughBeaver Falls, PADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 335 lbTransfer infrom California (PA)
#54Thomas JohnsonLawndale, CADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom North Carolina Central
#16Flynn SchieleWest Linn, ORWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Colorado School of Mines
#14KK MeierLubbock, TXCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom UTSA
#18Jasper BeelerFarmington, MIS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 192 lbTransfer infrom Northern Illinois
#7Ty GoodwillPrichard, ALS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom South Alabama
#0Jacob FinleyBirmingham, ALDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Northern Illinois
#8Kenny WorthyBuckeye, AZDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 187 lbTransfer infrom Washington State
#2MJ CannonEvanston, ILDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Bowling Green
#9Damaine WilsonPompano Beach, FLLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom Georgia State
#12Filip MaciorowskiCarol Stream, ILLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom Northern Illinois
#10Patrick BauerMount Prospect, ILLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom Illinois State
#6Gi'Bran PayneCincinnati, OHRB0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Notre Dame
#5Samaj JonesPhiladelphia, PAQB1.8 pts36% starter · 64% conf.5′11″ · 211 lbReturning
#0Isaiah JohnsonFort Walton Beach, FLWR0.7 pts50% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 184 lbReturning
#87Gavin GroverLewis Center, OHTE0.7 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 255 lbReturning
#73Aiden PastorizaJackson, MIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 313 lbReturning
#70Cray PaichNorthbrook, ILOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 315 lbReturning
#50Evan TengesdahlDayton, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 323 lbReturning
#78Grant EdgingtonMadeira, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbReturning
#59Jake WheelockDayton, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 312 lbReturning
#74Joe CottonSioux Falls, SDOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 320 lbReturning
#69JP SchrieberBerwyn, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 305 lbReturning
#71Judea MilonKilleen, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning
#75Marcus McGregorWest Des Moines, IAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 312 lbReturning
#72Nolan LatulippeAylmer, PQOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 315 lbReturning
#77Taran TyoGreenville, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 325 lbReturning
#66Xavier LozowickiRidley Park, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 315 lbReturning
#63Zac ClarkePlainfield, ILOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 305 lbReturning
#76Zach TaylorKingsland, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 315 lbReturning
#26Cam RoetherfordDetroit, MIDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 285 lbReturning
#88CD McFeeElkhart, INDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbReturning
#91Drew LoganNorth Canton, OHDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 275 lbReturning
#92Elijah GunnLaGrange, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 307 lbReturning
#82James EarlyFort Wayne, INDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 257 lbReturning
#16Jaylon White-McClainVirginia Beach, VADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 275 lbReturning
#97Kamron NealFort Myers, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 270 lbReturning
#4Marquaze ParkerWest Memphis, ARDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 277 lbReturning
#96Nathan NunnMedina, OHDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 285 lbReturning
#13Zion JohnsonCovington, GARB0.5 pts60% role · 64% conf.5′8″ · 185 lbReturning
#14Elijah JonesNorristown, PAWR0.5 pts50% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbReturning
#18Giyahni KontosisBeltsville, MDWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning
#27Taizaun BurnsColumbus, OHWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbReturning
#88DaMari WitherspoonDallas, GATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 245 lbReturning
#83Devyn ZahurskyBerea, OHTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 247 lbReturning
#82Ka'Maurri SmithDayton, OHTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 252 lbReturning
#86Kellen DavisMiddletown, OHTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 248 lbReturning
#85Lyviel WatersCincinnati, OHTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 245 lbReturning
#25Daniel JamesPowder Springs, GACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 183 lbReturning
#13Patrick WilliamsGreenville, SCCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 172 lbReturning
#6Zay JohnsonClinton, SCCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 180 lbReturning
#19CJ JonesChicago, ILS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbReturning
#35Drew RobinsonClarksville, OHS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbReturning
#15Jamari JohnsonBirmingham, ALS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbReturning
#3Antwan Peek Jr.Cincinnati, OHDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbReturning
#20CJ CriteLincolnton, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 207 lbReturning
#32Landen SchaeferCincinnati, OHDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning
#5Marqavious SaboorDecatur, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#17Brian Simms IIIBaltimore, MDLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbReturning
#33George LeiboldSarasota, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 218 lbReturning
#22Jonathan ThompsonColumbus, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 228 lbReturning
#44Montay WeedonSilver Spring, MDLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 212 lbReturning
#34Myles HarrisonPickerington, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbReturning
#52Ronan CasanovaMiddletown, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 225 lbReturning
#31Simeon ColemanSeat Pleasant, MDLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 225 lbReturning
#24Terrell HolcombGahanna, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbReturning
#93Max LemastersCincinnati, OHPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′6″ · 175 lbReturning
#35Dino BeslagicSanta Clara, CAP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 205 lbReturning
#31Max FletcherMelbourne, VICP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 190 lbReturning
#48Eli SteinCambridge, WILS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbReturning
#99Stephen RusnakClarkston, MIPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#15Will KocherKings Mills, OHQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#11JV GibsonOpelousas, LAWR0.4 pts28% role · 52% conf.6′2″ · 208 lbNew / unverified
#52Austin HoaneCookeville, TNOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 282 lbNew / unverified
#79Luke CollinsGahanna, OHOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#67Luke GroverLewis Center, OHOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 308 lbNew / unverified
#61Nathan ZappitelliMentor, OHOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#55Solomon MathisHephzibah, GAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#94Juan BatesMason, OHDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 265 lbNew / unverified
#90Darrius SimmonsCairo, GADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#99Jonathan RuloBelleville, ILDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#60Lance DawsonAvon, OHDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 260 lbNew / unverified
#19Dadrien WallerGuntersville, ALWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#17H'eij JacksonNew Orleans, LAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#20Joshua SmithColumbus, OHWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#89Pierce AyersAlexandria, KYWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#84Gavin GregoryAlliance, OHTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#80Jalen WilliamsBloomington, INTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 227 lbNew / unverified
#21Jamarion McKinneyGreenville, SCCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#29Kameron HurstSt. Louis, MOCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#23Jaidon WindomDetroit, MIS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 187 lbNew / unverified
#46Xavier StarksBirmingham, ALS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 202 lbNew / unverified
#27Markell TaylorDallas, GADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#47Adam KirtleyCincinnati, OHLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 214 lbNew / unverified
#36Evan WeinbergSpringboro, OHLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#45Jaxon NewtonAnniston, ALLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#93Keegan HornHueytown, ALLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#12Brooks GoodmanAtlanta, GAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′2″ · 212 lbNew / unverified
#22JJ MillerAmelia, OHQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#25James LewisBloomfield, INRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#21James MinorCincinnati, OHRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 203 lbNew / unverified
#26Jayzon ThompsonKnoxville, TNRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#41Kenny BakerCincinnati, OHLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Boston CollegeNon-conference · Nippert Stadium · 4M 24–31 · 66% win
HomeSep 53:30 PM EDT · model ↗2
Western CarolinaNon-conference · Nippert Stadium · 4M 16–38 · 90% win
HomeSep 127:00 PM EDT · model ↗3Miami (OH)Non-conference · TQL Stadium · 4M 24–29 · 61% win
HomeSep 193:30 PM EDT · model ↗4
Kansas StateConference · Nippert Stadium · 4M 29–25 · 42% win
HomeSep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
ArizonaConference · Arizona Stadium · 4M 22–31 · 31% win
AwayOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
West VirginiaConference · Milan Puskar Stadium · 4M 27–25 · 55% win
AwayOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
Texas TechConference · Nippert Stadium · 4M 31–20 · 26% win
HomeOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
UtahConference · Nippert Stadium · 4M 31–24 · 33% win
HomeOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
HoustonConference · TDECU Stadium · 4M 24–30 · 36% win
AwayNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
Iowa StateConference · Jack Trice Stadium · 4M 25–29 · 41% win
AwayNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
ColoradoConference · Nippert Stadium · 4M 25–29 · 61% win
HomeNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
BYUConference · LaVell Edwards Stadium · 4M 21–33 · 25% win
AwayNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case3 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint5 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case7 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Cincinnati diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The number is below a full possession and Cincinnati's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionCan this team separate in the country's most compressed conference race?