The 2026 outlook
Can this team separate in the country's most compressed conference race?
Arizona opens No. 29 nationally and No. 4 of 16 in the Big 12. The 4M baseline rates the roster 8.6 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 6.1 regular-season wins.
Arizona grades as a legitimate ranked team capable of punishing an overrated opponent. The distance to the playoff tier is consistency: one empty offensive quarter, a protection failure or a coverage bust can turn a controlled game into a coin flip.
There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.
The schedule grades No. 62 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Arizona beats its 6.1-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachBrent Brennan32–30 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger22 in · 20 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#14Cole RuskRock Island, ILTE0.6 pts45% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom Illinois
#84Rodney Gallagher IIIUniontown, PAWR0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 177 lbTransfer infrom West Virginia
#80Shane KingGainesville, GATE0.5 pts43% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 236 lbTransfer infrom Southern Miss
#77Jake GriffinMesa, AZOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 309 lbTransfer infrom BYU
#10Jordan RossCompton, CAWR0.5 pts49% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 171 lbTransfer infrom Colorado State
#45Victory JohnsonSan Diego, CADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 246 lbTransfer infrom Cal Poly
#44Antwan RobertsNashville, TNRB0.5 pts59% role · 76% conf.6′0″ · 204 lbTransfer infrom Marshall
#4DJ JordanWatts, CAWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom USC
#86Arthur BanPortland, ORTE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom San Diego State
#12Dwight BootleMiami, FLCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 174 lbTransfer infrom Charlotte
#9Tyrese BossRialto, CACB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 181 lbTransfer infrom Wyoming
#25Zuri WatsonSaint Petersburg, FLCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 188 lbTransfer infrom Howard
#13Cam ChapaAurora, COS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Northern Colorado
#2Daylen AustinLong Beach, CAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 194 lbTransfer infrom Oregon
#17Lee Molette IIINashville, TNS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 192 lbTransfer infrom UConn
#15Malcolm HartzogSilver Creek, MSS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 184 lbTransfer infrom Nebraska
#4Matai Tagoa'iLas Vegas, NVS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom USC
#48Cooper BlomstromDover, NHLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom Georgetown
#16Everett Roussaw Jr.Atlanta, GALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbTransfer infrom Memphis
#34Carter SchwartzLouisville, KYP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 232 lbTransfer infrom Louisville
#1Noah FifitaHuntington Beach, CAQB4.9 pts94% starter · 76% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbReturning
#11Chris HunterNew Orleans, LAWR0.7 pts56% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning
#12Tre SpiveyChandler, AZWR0.7 pts52% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 213 lbReturning
#5Giovanni RichardsonChandler, AZWR0.7 pts50% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 173 lbReturning
#17Isaiah MizellOrlando, FLWR0.7 pts53% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 165 lbReturning
#18Brandon PhelpsGilbert, AZWR0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 201 lbReturning
#63Alexander DoostPhoenix, AZOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 340 lbReturning
#78Grayson StovallChandler, AZOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 323 lbReturning
#79Isaac PerezCorona, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 339 lbReturning
#62Javian GooKapolei, HIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 291 lbReturning
#66Jaxon GriffinMesa, AZOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 282 lbReturning
#54Keona PeatChandler, AZOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 297 lbReturning
#72Louis AkpaSouth San Francisco, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 299 lbReturning
#73Matthew LadoGlendale, AZOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 318 lbReturning
#59Rhino Tapa'atoutaiMission Hills, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 316 lbReturning
#56Sione TohiSan Francisco, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 330 lbReturning
#71Tristan BoundsBethesda, MDOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 306 lbReturning
#53Christian MadoskiGlendale, AZDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 257 lbReturning
#42Dominic LolesioLong Beach, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 253 lbReturning
#92Ezra FunaAnaheim, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 290 lbReturning
#41Julian SavaiinaeaHonolulu, HIDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 282 lbReturning
#95Leroy PaluCorona, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 292 lbReturning
#99Mays PeseSanta Barbara, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 284 lbReturning
#91Porter PattonAustin, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 259 lbReturning
#3Tre SmithMesa, AZDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 262 lbReturning
#96Zac SiulepaGold Coast, QLDDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 382 lbReturning
#3Kedrick ReescanoNew Caney, TXRB0.5 pts63% role · 76% conf.6′0″ · 217 lbReturning
#24Quincy CraigGarden Grove, CARB0.5 pts59% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 189 lbReturning
#89Jordan McCord IIISoquel, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbReturning
#82Landon KelseyPortland, ORWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 210 lbReturning
#81Scotty BrennanLos Gatos, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 178 lbReturning
#85Kellan FordDanville, CATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 236 lbReturning
#83Tyler MustainTucson, AZTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbReturning
#87Tyler PowellPhoenix, AZTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 249 lbReturning
#31Aiden MillerPhoenix, AZCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning
#8Jay'Vion ColeOakland, CACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 181 lbReturning
#28Swayde GriffinLago Vista, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 197 lbReturning
#20Dajon HintonSan Diego, CAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 169 lbReturning
#23Gavin HunterMililani, HIS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 207 lbReturning
#33Kason BrownBig Lake, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 201 lbReturning
#35Quinn OlsonSioux City, IAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 204 lbReturning
#21Johno PriceEast Palo Alto, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 180 lbReturning
#40Brandon CraddockPhoenix, AZLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 219 lbReturning
#18Carter JonesCoto De Caza, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 227 lbReturning
#7Chase KennedyDallas, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbReturning
#26Coleman PatmonDel Valle, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#36Dominic HangerChandler, AZLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 223 lbReturning
#11Jabari MannSan Mateo, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 218 lbReturning
#39Jacob BuggiePhoenix, AZLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 214 lbReturning
#55Leviticus Su'aPerris, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 229 lbReturning
#10Myron RobinsonSan Antonio, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 231 lbReturning
#32Nela TaliauliPuna, HILB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 221 lbReturning
#6Taye BrownChandler, AZLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 228 lbReturning
#28Anthony WilhiteTucson, AZRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 189 lbReturning
#6Cornelius Warren IIIFort Worth, TXRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 177 lbReturning
#0Wesley YarbroughHouston, TXRB0.3 pts46% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 210 lbReturning
#19Michael Salgado-MedinaMission Viejo, CAPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.6′3″ · 213 lbReturning
#16Luke HaugoScottsdale, AZQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′5″ · 204 lbReturning
#15Mason BrayPhoenix, AZQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′1″ · 188 lbReturning
#7Sawyer AndersonDallas, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.5′11″ · 181 lbReturning
#74Justin MoralesEl Paso, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 282 lbNew / unverified
#76Khalil SanogoDallas, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 328 lbNew / unverified
#68Malachi JoynerGilbert, AZOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#55Nathan HaleOrange, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 307 lbNew / unverified
#58Zach HenningCentennial, COOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 299 lbNew / unverified
#51Kaisi LafitagaPago PagoDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 301 lbNew / unverified
#38Kevin Moorer Jr.Mobile, ALDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#27Keytrin HarrisLas Vegas, NVDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 318 lbNew / unverified
#78Manoah FaupusaLong Beach, CADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 381 lbNew / unverified
#44Prince WilliamsLas Vegas, NVDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 264 lbNew / unverified
#2R.J. MosleyBrentwood, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 199 lbNew / unverified
#88Henry GabalisDuvall, WATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 232 lbNew / unverified
#39Lachlan TeissierPerthTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′8″ · 250 lbNew / unverified
#24Kingston SpiveyChandler, AZCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′8″ · 176 lbNew / unverified
#30Xaier HilerDenton, TXCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 174 lbNew / unverified
#14Hannibal Navies IIBuford, GAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 203 lbNew / unverified
#34James PikePhoenix, AZS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#0Dash FifitaHuntington Beach, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′7″ · 186 lbNew / unverified
#29Jaden ParkerAnna, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 245 lbNew / unverified
#9Oscar RiosNorwalk, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#37Chase RidleyPerthP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 238 lbNew / unverified
#98Ian FrenchDripping Springs, TXP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 193 lbNew / unverified
#43Drew NicolsonTempe, AZLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 233 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Northern ArizonaNon-conference · Arizona Stadium · 4M 14–38 · 90% win
HomeSep 59:30 PM EDT · model ↗2BYUConference · LaVell Edwards Stadium · 4M 23–29 · 38% win
AwaySep 123:30 PM EDT · model ↗3
Northern IllinoisNon-conference · Arizona Stadium · 4M 15–35 · 86% win
HomeSep 1910:30 PM EDT · model ↗4
Washington StateNon-conference · Gesa Field · 4M 26–24 · 55% win
AwaySep 267:30 PM EDT · model ↗5
CincinnatiConference · Arizona Stadium · 4M 22–31 · 69% win
HomeOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
West VirginiaConference · Milan Puskar Stadium · 4M 28–22 · 64% win
AwayOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
Iowa StateConference · Arizona Stadium · 4M 22–29 · 65% win
HomeOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
Texas TechConference · Jones AT&T Stadium · 4M 19–29 · 28% win
AwayOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
TCUConference · Arizona Stadium · 4M 24–27 · 57% win
HomeNov 610:15 PM EST · model ↗11
UtahConference · Arizona Stadium · 4M 27–25 · 45% win
HomeNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
Kansas StateConference · Bill Snyder Family Stadium · 4M 24–27 · 45% win
AwayNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
Arizona StateConference · Arizona Stadium · 4M 23–27 · 59% win
HomeNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case4 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint6 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case8 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Arizona diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The number is below a full possession and Arizona's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.
The case rests on ranking, résumé or home-field narrative rather than a repeatable down-to-down advantage.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionCan this team separate in the country's most compressed conference race?