The 2026 outlook
Can this team separate in the country's most compressed conference race?
Kansas State opens No. 31 nationally and No. 5 of 16 in the Big 12. The 4M baseline rates the roster 8.3 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 6.6 regular-season wins.
Kansas State grades as a legitimate ranked team capable of punishing an overrated opponent. The distance to the playoff tier is consistency: one empty offensive quarter, a protection failure or a coverage bust can turn a controlled game into a coin flip.
There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.
The schedule grades No. 65 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Kansas State beats its 6.6-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachCollin Klein0–0 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityNew head coachReplaces Chris Klieman
Portal ledger26 in · 33 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#20Rodney Fields Jr.Wright City, OKRB0.8 pts82% role · 76% conf.5′9″ · 193 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State
#8Brandon WhiteCincinnati, OHWR0.6 pts51% role · 64% conf.5′7″ · 168 lbTransfer infrom Hawai'i
#79Charlie AdamsLos Angeles, CAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 327 lbTransfer infrom Cal Poly
#61Chase DuarteConcord, CAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom San Diego State
#57Delvin MorrisCaldwell, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 293 lbTransfer infrom Akron
#54Keiton JonesCoffeyville, KSOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 322 lbTransfer infrom Missouri
#77Tanner MorleyHighlands Ranch, COOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 320 lbTransfer infrom Colorado State
#65Tyler JohnsonNatchitoches, LAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 312 lbTransfer infrom Auburn
#56Elijah HillBryant, ARDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom Kennesaw State
#40Jayden BryantClover, SCDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Coastal Carolina
#1Wendell GregoryMarietta, GADE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 265 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State
#76Austin RamseyPhiladelphia, PADT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 309 lbTransfer infrom Kentucky
#19De'Arieun HicksRichmond, INDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 283 lbTransfer infrom Gardner-Webb
#15Kamari BurnsColumbus, OHDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 302 lbTransfer infrom Cincinnati
#1Izaiah WilliamsTampa, FLWR0.5 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Texas A&M
#7Kaleb PattersonJackson, MSCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 192 lbTransfer infrom Illinois
#2Adrian MaddoxConyers, GAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 194 lbTransfer infrom Georgia
#3Ja'son PrevardAtlantic City, NJS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Virginia
#0Koy BeasleyCincinnati, OHS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 187 lbTransfer infrom Miami (OH)
#9Jay HarrisSt. Louis, MORB0.4 pts51% role · 76% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Oregon
#20Jacobi Oliphant Jr.St. Louis, MOLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State
#4Mekhi MasonPembroke Pines, FLLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 233 lbTransfer infrom Louisiana Tech
#37Robert Hammond IIIWest Palm Beach, FLPK0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 182 lbTransfer infrom Toledo
#29Dylan DavidsonStillwater, OKP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Emporia State
#2Avery JohnsonWichita, KSQB4.8 pts94% starter · 76% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbReturning
#12Jaron TibbsIndianapolis, INWR0.8 pts60% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 212 lbReturning
#86Garrett OakleyColumbus, NETE0.8 pts58% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 249 lbReturning
#4Joe JacksonHaines City, FLRB0.7 pts85% role · 76% conf.6′0″ · 212 lbReturning
#6Sterling LockettLeawood, KSWR0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbReturning
#80Will AnciauxWichita, KSTE0.6 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 241 lbReturning
#50Brock HeathOverland Park, KSOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 292 lbReturning
#71Dylan VillarouelCumming, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 328 lbReturning
#59George FitzpatrickEnglewood, COOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 301 lbReturning
#70Gus HawkinsShawnee, KSOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 307 lbReturning
#68Joe VickersDewitt, IAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 290 lbReturning
#78John PastoreErie, COOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 302 lbReturning
#55Kyle RakersNorwalk, IAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 304 lbReturning
#66Michael CapriaKansas City, MOOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 300 lbReturning
#74Navarro SchunkeBrandon, SDOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 322 lbReturning
#72Ryan HowardDowningtown, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 295 lbReturning
#17Adonis MoiseBradenton, FLWR0.6 pts49% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 194 lbReturning
#90Brad StanyerGrapevine, TXDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 280 lbReturning
#30Dalton KnappGrapevine, TXDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 239 lbReturning
#91Jordan AllenOlathe, KSDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 263 lbReturning
#39Travis BatesTomball, TXDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 278 lbReturning
#75Holden BassSeneca, KSDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 299 lbReturning
#95Patrick TackieBronx, NYDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 293 lbReturning
#84Isaac KochOlathe, KSWR0.5 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 198 lbReturning
#18Larry Porter IVRaytown, MOWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning
#0Linkon CureGoodland, KSTE0.5 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 242 lbReturning
#9Donovan McIntoshSaint Louis, MOCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 187 lbReturning
#21JoJo ScottLakeland, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 182 lbReturning
#24Martel JacksonWichita, KSCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbReturning
#13RJ CollinsKansas City, MOCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 178 lbReturning
#12Serious StinyardLutz, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#25Zashon RichMinneapolis, MNCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 206 lbReturning
#31Dominic MitchellParadise Valley, AZS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbReturning
#22Jace AdlerAndover, KSS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning
#36Jack FabrisBogart, GAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbReturning
#14Jet DineenLawrence, KSS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 200 lbReturning
#10Logan BartleyNaples, FLS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 213 lbReturning
#17Mikey BergeronShawnee, KSS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 194 lbReturning
#18Wesley FairWichita, KSS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbReturning
#23Asa NewsomWaverly, IALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 224 lbReturning
#41Ashton MooreLouisburg, KSLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbReturning
#6Darien Whitaker Jr.Baltimore, MDLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 246 lbReturning
#35Gabe PowersMarysville, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 233 lbReturning
#28Rex Van WyheRock Rapids, IALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 244 lbReturning
#26Sawyer SchilkeKearney, NELB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbReturning
#44Weston PolkCoppell, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 221 lbReturning
#31Monterrio Elston Jr.Little Rock, ARRB0.3 pts46% role · 64% conf.5′7″ · 191 lbReturning
#43Luis RodriguezSylmar, CAPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbReturning
#8Simon McClannanOmaha, NEP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 183 lbReturning
#33Andrew JohnsonLincoln, NELS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 232 lbReturning
#3Blake BarnettErie, COQB0.2 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′1″ · 218 lbReturning
#10Dillon DuffSt. Louis, MOQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#7Jacob KnuthHarrisburg, SDQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′4″ · 225 lbReturning
#5Josh ManningLee's Summit, MOWR0.4 pts29% role · 52% conf.6′3″ · 217 lbNew / unverified
#64Bennett FraserKirksville, MOOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 277 lbNew / unverified
#62Jordan JensenEstherville, IAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 297 lbNew / unverified
#60Keegan CollinsAmarillo, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 288 lbNew / unverified
#53Lamarcus BarberShawnee, KSOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 323 lbNew / unverified
#73Oliver MillerCentennial, COOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 294 lbNew / unverified
#83Jackson HollieJunction City, KSDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 221 lbNew / unverified
#98Tucker AshfordNorth Richland Hills, TXDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 273 lbNew / unverified
#99Adrian BekibeleStockholmDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 308 lbNew / unverified
#97Carnell Jackson Jr.Auburn, ALDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 350 lbNew / unverified
#88Eli JacksonWilliston, FLDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#94Kingston HallTahlequah, OKDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 282 lbNew / unverified
#58Miles MerchantCarson, CADT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 301 lbNew / unverified
#15Derrick Salley Jr.Green Pond, SCWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 234 lbNew / unverified
#16Julius WilsonOwasso, OKWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 199 lbNew / unverified
#14Max LovettGreenwood Village, COWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#85Nash MorrisonBasehor, KSWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 187 lbNew / unverified
#88Arley MorrellPratt, KSTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 224 lbNew / unverified
#87Lawson McgrawOverland Park, KSTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 232 lbNew / unverified
#81Owen HarringtonSan Jose, CATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 245 lbNew / unverified
#27Damion MillerHermanville, MSCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#32Garrick DixonSt. Louis, MOCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 194 lbNew / unverified
#29Josiah VilmaelRichmond, TXCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#5Micheal Graham Jr.Oklahoma City, OKCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 189 lbNew / unverified
#34Nick McclellanSt. Louis, MOCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 193 lbNew / unverified
#19Blake JayShawnee, KSS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 178 lbNew / unverified
#16DJ Ackerson Jr.Oklahoma City, OKLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 207 lbNew / unverified
#21LJ McGheeTulsa, OKRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′7″ · 186 lbNew / unverified
#24Tanner WestKaty, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#96Aidan O'NeillClarkston, MIPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 204 lbNew / unverified
#45Jaxson DuffieldOwasso, OKLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#46Sam DolphensPapillion, NELS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 211 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1NichollsNon-conference · Bill Snyder Family Stadium · 4M 11–41 · 95% win
HomeSep 57:00 PM EDT · model ↗2Washington StateNon-conference · Bill Snyder Family Stadium · 4M 22–29 · 66% win
HomeSep 1212:00 PM EDT · model ↗3
TulaneNon-conference · Bill Snyder Family Stadium · 4M 22–30 · 66% win
HomeSep 1912:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
CincinnatiConference · Nippert Stadium · 4M 29–25 · 58% win
AwaySep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
HoustonConference · Bill Snyder Family Stadium · 4M 23–28 · 62% win
HomeOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
KansasConference · Bill Snyder Family Stadium · 4M 24–30 · 62% win
HomeOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
Arizona StateConference · Mountain America Stadium · 4M 25–26 · 48% win
AwayOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
ColoradoConference · Folsom Field · 4M 29–23 · 63% win
AwayOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
Oklahoma StateConference · Bill Snyder Family Stadium · 4M 19–33 · 78% win
HomeNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
TCUConference · Amon G. Carter Stadium · 4M 25–27 · 46% win
AwayNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
ArizonaConference · Bill Snyder Family Stadium · 4M 24–27 · 55% win
HomeNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
Iowa StateConference · Jack Trice Stadium · 4M 27–25 · 54% win
AwayNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case4 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint7 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case9 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Kansas State diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The number is below a full possession and Kansas State's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.
The case rests on ranking, résumé or home-field narrative rather than a repeatable down-to-down advantage.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionCan this team separate in the country's most compressed conference race?