The 2026 outlook
Can the roster hold its efficiency when the schedule produces SEC-level stress almost every week?
South Carolina opens No. 30 nationally and No. 13 of 16 in the SEC. The 4M baseline rates the roster 8.5 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 5.4 regular-season wins.
South Carolina grades as a legitimate ranked team capable of punishing an overrated opponent. The distance to the playoff tier is consistency: one empty offensive quarter, a protection failure or a coverage bust can turn a controlled game into a coin flip.
There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.
The schedule is a defining variable: it projects No. 16 nationally, with No. 1 representing the hardest slate. South Carolina can play good football and still finish below public expectations if it loses the possession battles in its highest-leverage games. This is why the 5.4-win projection may look conservative relative to the power rating.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachShane Beamer33–30 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger26 in · 25 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#15Lucian Anderson IIIAthens, GAQB1.9 pts36% starter · 64% conf.6′3″ · 216 lbTransfer infrom Bowling Green
#84Charly MullalyEast Fishkill, NYWR0.7 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Holy Cross
#1Nitro TuggleElkhart, INWR0.7 pts51% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Purdue
#83DJ BlackInman, SCWR0.6 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom UCF
#79Armando NievesPhoenix, AZOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom New Mexico State
#50Carter MillerFort Worth, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 311 lbTransfer infrom UCF
#75Dayne ArnettGrand Haven, MIOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Ferris State
#51Ebubedike NnabugwuBaltimore, MDOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Missouri State
#52Hank PurvisWichita, KSOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 330 lbTransfer infrom Purdue
#65Jacarrius PeakValdosta, GAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom NC State
#78Seth SmithChandler, AZOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 309 lbTransfer infrom Northern Arizona
#39Caleb HerringNewnan, GADE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom Tennessee
#27Drew CollinsBirmingham, ALDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 246 lbTransfer infrom Arkansas State
#11Jordan ThomasHackensack, NJDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 316 lbTransfer infrom Georgia
#97Kelby CollinsBirmingham, ALDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 285 lbTransfer infrom Alabama
#13Tomiwa DurojaiyePhiladelphia, PADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 291 lbTransfer infrom Illinois
#10Christian ClarkPhoenix, AZRB0.4 pts55% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 216 lbTransfer infrom Texas
#9Jayden GibsonApopka, FLWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma
#12Quay'sheed ScottMarion, SCDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 208 lbTransfer infrom Kentucky
#80Max DragChapin, SCTE0.4 pts42% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 248 lbTransfer infrom UCF
#21Jabree ColemanDarby Township, PARB0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Penn State
#57Emmet RhoadesChicago, ILLS0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Western Carolina
#27Upton BellenfantMurfreesboro, TNPK0.3 pts38% role · 52% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Texas Tech
#16LaNorris SellersFlorence, SCQB3.0 pts61% starter · 76% conf.6′3″ · 238 lbReturning
#17Jayden SellersFlorence, SCWR0.8 pts60% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning
#8Nyck HarborWashington, DCWR0.8 pts54% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 239 lbReturning
#6Donovan MurphIrmo, SCWR0.8 pts54% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 199 lbReturning
#44Maurice Brown IIUpper Marlboro, MDTE0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbReturning
#87Brady HuntMuncie, INTE0.6 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 251 lbReturning
#71Blake FranksGreenville, SCOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 325 lbReturning
#70Jake ReckerIndian Land, SCOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 310 lbReturning
#74Josiah ThompsonDillon, SCOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 305 lbReturning
#58Markee AndersonRoebuck, SCOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 320 lbReturning
#62Nolan HayKaty, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 328 lbReturning
#72Shed Sarratt Jr.Gaffney, SCOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 318 lbReturning
#22Jawarn HowellMooresville, NCRB0.6 pts54% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 222 lbReturning
#40Anthony AddisonBishopville, SCDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbReturning
#6Dylan StewartWashington, DCDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 250 lbReturning
#10George Wilson Jr.Virginia Beach, VADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbReturning
#22Jaquavious DoddTaylors, SCDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 253 lbReturning
#41Kobby Sakyi-PrahRoswell, GADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 231 lbReturning
#33Troy PikesAtlanta, GADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 293 lbReturning
#88Caleb WilliamsEttrick, VADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 287 lbReturning
#95Christian IngramConyers, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 300 lbReturning
#99Gabriel Brownlow-DindyLakeland, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbReturning
#3Mazeo Bennett Jr.Greenville, SCWR0.6 pts48% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbReturning
#28Matt FullerJesup, GARB0.5 pts64% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 221 lbReturning
#82Jackson ReppGreenville, SCWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 175 lbReturning
#7Jordon GidronColumbia, SCWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 197 lbReturning
#0Lex CyrusHarrisburg, PAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbReturning
#13Malik ClarkRock Hill, SCWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbReturning
#5Mike TylerColumbia, SCTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbReturning
#81Reno RoehmCincinnati, OHTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 260 lbReturning
#29Cedric CisseSumter, SCDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 193 lbReturning
#21Chris HatfieldLudowici, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbReturning
#19Damarcus LeachAbbeville, SCDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 201 lbReturning
#9David BuceySavannah, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 214 lbReturning
#1Gerald KilgoreEatonton, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 208 lbReturning
#26Isaiah McClaryIrmo, SCDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 175 lbReturning
#35Jackson BurgerFort Mill, SCDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 209 lbReturning
#16Jalewis SolomonEllaville, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning
#18Jaquel HolmanBlackville, SCDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 214 lbReturning
#8Judge CollierRock Hill, SCDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 206 lbReturning
#3Kelvin HunterFlorence, SCDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbReturning
#5Kendall Daniels Jr.Norfolk, VADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 213 lbReturning
#36Landon KurtzFort Mill, SCDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning
#31Peyton WilliamsHeath, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 214 lbReturning
#43Tony BrownCharleston, SCDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning
#4Vicari SwainCarrollton, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 193 lbReturning
#25Zahbari SandyWashington, DCDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 208 lbReturning
#32A.J. HollowayBuford, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 232 lbReturning
#15Donovan DardenHavelock, NCLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 240 lbReturning
#0Fred JohnsonNorfolk, VALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 241 lbReturning
#34Jamian Risher Jr.Varnville, SCLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 238 lbReturning
#20Josh SmithIrmo, SCLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 234 lbReturning
#17Justin OkoronkwoMunichLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbReturning
#7Shawn MurphyManassas, VALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 233 lbReturning
#4Isaiah AugustaveNaples, FLRB0.4 pts51% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbReturning
#31Neil Salvage IIIWaxhaw, NCRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 186 lbReturning
#14Max KelleyGallatin, TNPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning
#29Gunnar YocumHuger, SCLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 201 lbReturning
#33Kyler FarrowHartland, WILS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 221 lbReturning
#24Mason LoveRiverside, MOPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#12Cutter WoodsAnderson, SCQB0.2 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbReturning
#19Brandon CunninghamAnderson, SCQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbReturning
#25Jimmy FrancisDallas, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbReturning
#55Adedamola AjidahunDuluth, GAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 315 lbNew / unverified
#60Anthony BaxterRock Hill, SCOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 340 lbNew / unverified
#54Ashton MozoneGraniteville, SCOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
#77Darius GrayChesterfield, VAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 302 lbNew / unverified
#69Emmanuel Kojo PokuCharlotte, NCOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 320 lbNew / unverified
#64Neff GiwaCashelOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#67Vincent ChenDeLand, FLOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 330 lbNew / unverified
#76Zyon GuilesGeorgetown, SCOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#93Julian WalkerIrmo, SCDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 255 lbNew / unverified
#92Aiden HarrisShellman, GADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 286 lbNew / unverified
#65Noah ClarkDurham, NCDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 345 lbNew / unverified
#23Sequel PattersonCharlotte, NCWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#18Stone FurreyIrmo, SCWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 181 lbNew / unverified
#85Caden RamseyCross, SCTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#14JZavien CurrenceRock Hill, SCDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#44KJ JohnsonBirmingham, ALDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#28Kosci BarnesGreensboro, NCDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 209 lbNew / unverified
#23Triston LewisGreenwood, SCDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#30Andrew HarrisShellman, GALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 238 lbNew / unverified
#24Keenan BrittOxford, ALLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 238 lbNew / unverified
#11Landon DuckworthJackson, ALQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′4″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#35Ethan KellumNashville, TNRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#32Malik OrsanSt. Louis, MOLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#59Matthew OhBuford, GALS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Kent StateNon-conference · Williams-Brice Stadium · 4M 16–36 · 86% win
HomeSep 512:45 PM EDT · model ↗2
TowsonNon-conference · Williams-Brice Stadium · 4M 10–41 · 96% win
HomeSep 127:00 PM EDT · model ↗3Mississippi StateConference · Williams-Brice Stadium · 4M 22–29 · 65% win
HomeSep 194:15 PM EDT · model ↗4
AlabamaConference · Bryant-Denny Stadium · 4M 21–29 · 33% win
AwaySep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
KentuckyConference · Williams-Brice Stadium · 4M 21–28 · 64% win
HomeOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
FloridaConference · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium · 4M 24–26 · 44% win
AwayOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
TennesseeConference · Williams-Brice Stadium · 4M 27–26 · 47% win
HomeOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
OklahomaConference · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) · 4M 20–28 · 34% win
AwayOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
Texas A&MConference · Williams-Brice Stadium · 4M 28–23 · 38% win
HomeNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
ArkansasConference · Razorback Stadium · 4M 28–27 · 52% win
AwayNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
GeorgiaConference · Williams-Brice Stadium · 4M 29–21 · 33% win
HomeNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
ClemsonNon-conference · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC) · 4M 24–27 · 43% win
AwayNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case3 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint5 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case8 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about South Carolina diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The number is below a full possession and South Carolina's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.
A difficult opponent is paired with short rest, uncertain quarterback availability or a line that assumes best-case continuity.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionCan the roster hold its efficiency when the schedule produces SEC-level stress almost every week?