The 2026 outlook
Can this team create enough explosive offense to separate in the reconfigured Mountain West?
Wyoming opens No. 113 nationally and No. 6 of 10 in the Mountain West. The 4M baseline rates the roster 10.3 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 4.6 regular-season wins.
Wyoming begins below the FBS average, so progress should first appear in functional line play, fewer negative snaps and cleaner late-game execution. That does not make this team an automatic fade; large spreads become valuable when the favorite lacks the pace or explosiveness to create margin.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule projects among the country's most manageable at No. 130. That creates upside in the win column, but also a pricing trap: the record can improve faster than the underlying team quality, inviting bettors to pay for results that came against limited resistance.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachJay Sawvel7–17 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger19 in · 16 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#6Tyler HughesMarietta, GAQB3.9 pts71% starter · 64% conf.6′0″ · 214 lbTransfer infrom William & Mary
#8Markell HolmanPhiladelphia, PARB0.9 pts88% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 214 lbTransfer infrom Western Illinois
#22Diore HubbardGahanna, OHRB0.6 pts70% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 188 lbTransfer infrom West Virginia
#80Tyler SiddonsSalem, ARTE0.6 pts43% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 254 lbTransfer infrom Central Arkansas
#52Chandler DonawayKlein, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom East Texas A&M
#51Jason MaciejczakPierre, SDOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Nebraska
#99Donnie WingateChoctaw, OKDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 251 lbTransfer infrom Southern Illinois
#21Jack DunkleyPenndel, PADE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 253 lbTransfer infrom Duquesne
#51Thaddeus GianarisPark Ridge, ILDE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 252 lbTransfer infrom Dartmouth
#44Ja'Quan RedfernVineland, NJDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 288 lbTransfer infrom Murray State
#5Justin PopovichLouisville, KYWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 203 lbTransfer infrom Lock Haven
#7Junus McGrawAnchorage, AKCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 191 lbTransfer infrom West Liberty
#8Logan MackeyHouston, TXCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 193 lbTransfer infrom Weber State
#18Da'Marion BrownleeDallas, TXS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbTransfer infrom Missouri Southern State
#4Jett VincentGrinnell, KSS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 203 lbTransfer infrom Colorado State
#2Travis Franklin Jr.Riverdale, GAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Jacksonville State
#2Anthony BeaversBaldwin Hills, CALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 237 lbTransfer infrom USC
#49Nathan CurryMurfreesboro, TNLS0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 206 lbTransfer infrom North Alabama
#7Mason DrubeGillette, WYQB1.2 pts27% starter · 64% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbReturning
#3Deion DeBlancHouston, TXWR0.7 pts55% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbReturning
#19Charlie CoenenChanhassen, MNWR0.7 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#83Kyle FrendtWoodbury, MNTE0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbReturning
#87Isaac SchoenfeldRock Springs, WYTE0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 260 lbReturning
#1Samuel HarrisCibolo, TXRB0.6 pts71% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 202 lbReturning
#71Jake DaviesYorkville, ILOT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 308 lbReturning
#76Quinn Grovesteen-MatcheyEvansville, WIOT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 310 lbReturning
#64Brandt RiceWausau, WIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbReturning
#63Braylon JenkinsWest Des Moines, IAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbReturning
#73Caleb HallCarmichael, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbReturning
#75Cooper LawsonAfton, WYOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning
#50Giovanni PanozzoArvada, COOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 314 lbReturning
#66Johnathan BushWhitehouse, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 310 lbReturning
#77Josiah PetaiaLong Beach, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 313 lbReturning
#55Kalvin JanssenGretna, NEOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 307 lbReturning
#65Nathan GeigerHighlands Ranch, COOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 303 lbReturning
#70Rex JohnsenLogan, IAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 308 lbReturning
#62Spencer RathbunDenver, COOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 275 lbReturning
#74Tariq MillerLeon, IAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 302 lbReturning
#90Cade BrookAurora, CODE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 256 lbReturning
#39Eltoum MurgusKansas City, MODE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbReturning
#11Esaia BogarRancho Cucamonga, CADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 255 lbReturning
#47Jason HandyCedar Park, TXDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 247 lbReturning
#58Jordan TurnbullEvergreen, CODE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 256 lbReturning
#55Kevin SjogrenPalisade, CODE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 251 lbReturning
#95Caleb RobinsonOmaha, NEDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 298 lbReturning
#68Cody CrawfordCasper, WYDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 290 lbReturning
#92Dante DrakeRobinson, TXDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 296 lbReturning
#96Henry RehbergOmaha, NEDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 287 lbReturning
#98Jayden WilliamsBryan, TXDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 294 lbReturning
#97Alex HaswellSheridan, WYDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbReturning
#53Tegen SeedsDouglas, WYDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 302 lbReturning
#9Jackson HolmanIrvine, CAWR0.6 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbReturning
#2Eric RichardsonSaint Robert, MOWR0.5 pts52% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 181 lbReturning
#12Bricen BrantleyHouston, TXWR0.5 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 190 lbReturning
#11Jayden WilliamsLas Vegas, NVWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 171 lbReturning
#16Joaquin SandovalGlenwood Springs, COWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 184 lbReturning
#4Ke'Lyn WashomHouston, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning
#13Pierre JacksonChicago, ILWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 172 lbReturning
#23Tyler NystromArden Hills, MNWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 189 lbReturning
#82Gage BrookFort Collins, COTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 249 lbReturning
#89Jake WilsonMontgomery, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 243 lbReturning
#88Landon PaceSt. Louis, MOTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 247 lbReturning
#44Tyler HamptonHuntington Beach, CATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 247 lbReturning
#9BJ InmonLas Vegas, NVCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning
#3Ian BellLa Verne, CACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#0Tyson Shamsid-DeenSan Antonio, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbReturning
#5Brooklyn CheekOakdale, CAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning
#1Desman HearnsClearwater, FLS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#13Elvin AmpofoAurora, COS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 182 lbReturning
#22Jaden DaCostaLos Angeles, CAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning
#23Jones ThomasFort Collins, COS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#6Kaiden Kimble-TurnerKuna, IDS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 197 lbReturning
#20Lafai PurcellFrederick, COS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#15David LeonardSt. Louis, MODB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 188 lbReturning
#24Drew JacksonCheyenne, WYDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 187 lbReturning
#46Dash BaumanLincoln, NELB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 237 lbReturning
#42Ethan StuhlsatzWichita, KSLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 237 lbReturning
#26Gary RutherfordPeoria, ILLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 237 lbReturning
#33Parker MooreLawrence, KSLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 238 lbReturning
#34Steven PerezWilmington, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 231 lbReturning
#26Dontae BurchKansas City, MORB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′7″ · 196 lbReturning
#20Jaden LawrenceParker, CORB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 203 lbReturning
#21Nico HamiltonAustin, TXRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 210 lbReturning
#28Nikos VarelasSan Antonio, TXRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbReturning
#99Keelan AndersonCheyenne, WYPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 178 lbReturning
#18Bart EdmistonOcean Springs, MSP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning
#43Gavyn HelmWindsor, COP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 209 lbReturning
#45Charlie HoustonRowlett, TXLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 206 lbReturning
#47Erik SandvikSteamboat Springs, COPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.6′1″ · 201 lbReturning
#14Landon SimsEvergreen, ALQB0.2 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′3″ · 217 lbReturning
#60Grant LottSaint Peters, MOOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#68Jackson GarrettCheyenne, WYOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
#54Jonathan PearcyLiberty, MOOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 301 lbNew / unverified
#72Pierce DeckerFort Collins, COOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#94Beck HaswellSheridan, WYDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 252 lbNew / unverified
#54MacGregor ByersHouston, TXDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 271 lbNew / unverified
#93Mohanad NahhasLatham, NYDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 293 lbNew / unverified
#50Tanielu Maafala-BarbasaLas Vegas, NVDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 281 lbNew / unverified
#91Xavier JacksonO' Fallon, MODT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 289 lbNew / unverified
#24Jarell GaryRound Rock, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 196 lbNew / unverified
#81Jordan StylesThe Woodlands, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 207 lbNew / unverified
#86Colin FordNaperville, ILTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 232 lbNew / unverified
#85Ishmael MuhammadDallas, TXTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 226 lbNew / unverified
#19Kendall GriffinChicago, ILCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#19Nathanial WatsonLittleton, COS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 183 lbNew / unverified
#25Therman WilliamsRiverside, CAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 186 lbNew / unverified
#28Boston GableGering, NELB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 216 lbNew / unverified
#40Dante BruleyChandler, AZLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 232 lbNew / unverified
#16Karson ButtsWichita, KSLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 237 lbNew / unverified
#41Mason WrightParkville, MOLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 242 lbNew / unverified
#15Taylor HasselbeckNashville, TNQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′2″ · 191 lbNew / unverified
#29Ryken BanksParker, CORB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 206 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Colorado StateNon-conference · Canvas Stadium · 4M 24–26 · 46% win
AwaySep 56:00 PM EDT · model ↗2
Northern ColoradoNon-conference · War Memorial Stadium · 4M 18–32 · 78% win
HomeSep 124:00 PM EDT · model ↗3Central MichiganNon-conference · Kelly/Shorts Stadium · 4M 22–27 · 40% win
AwaySep 191:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
Hawai'iConference · War Memorial Stadium · 4M 26–24 · 45% win
HomeSep 263:00 PM EDT · model ↗5North Dakota StateConference · Fargodome · 4M 23–26 · 44% win
AwayOct 33:30 PM EDT · model ↗6
San José StateConference · CEFCU Stadium · 4M 24–26 · 45% win
AwayOct 99:00 PM EDT · model ↗7
Northern IllinoisConference · War Memorial Stadium · 4M 22–27 · 61% win
HomeOct 173:30 PM EDT · model ↗8
Air ForceConference · War Memorial Stadium · 4M 27–27 · 49% win
HomeOct 239:00 PM EDT · model ↗10
UNLVConference · Allegiant Stadium · 4M 21–31 · 29% win
AwayNov 710:30 PM EST · model ↗11
UTEPConference · Sun Bowl · 4M 24–22 · 55% win
AwayNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
New MexicoConference · War Memorial Stadium · 4M 26–22 · 40% win
HomeNov 219:00 PM EST · model ↗13
UConnNon-conference · War Memorial Stadium · 4M 26–25 · 47% win
HomeNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case2 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint5 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case7 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Wyoming diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Wyoming to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionCan this team create enough explosive offense to separate in the reconfigured Mountain West?