The 2026 outlook
Will veteran depth and a favorable path convert championship expectations into a complete season?
Notre Dame opens No. 3 nationally and No. 1 of 2 in the Independent. The 4M baseline rates the roster 23.8 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 9.9 regular-season wins.
Notre Dame belongs in the championship conversation because the baseline expects control, not survival. Against most of the schedule, this roster should create an efficiency advantage without needing turnover luck or unsustainable red-zone results. The real evaluation begins when that advantage narrows against another top-15 team.
Carr returns to an offense that averaged 42 points, while Freeman's roster has both experienced starters and high-end recruiting depth. The Irish are less vulnerable to one injury than most contenders.
The schedule grades No. 47 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Notre Dame beats its 9.9-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Pressure pointCJ Carr · QB2025: 10–2
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachMarcus Freeman43–12 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger7 in · 16 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#3Mylan GrahamFort Wayne, INWR0.6 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 192 lbTransfer infrom Ohio State
#0Quincy PorterNew Milford, NJWR0.6 pts42% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 207 lbTransfer infrom Ohio State
#7Francis BrewuWesterville, OHDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 285 lbTransfer infrom Pittsburgh
#11Keon KeeleyTampa, FLDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 275 lbTransfer infrom Alabama
#0Tionne GraySt. Louis, MODL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 330 lbTransfer infrom Oregon
#2DJ McKinneyColleyville, TXCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Colorado
#12Jayden SandersKilgore, TXCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Michigan
#13CJ CarrSaline, MIQB5.2 pts94% starter · 76% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbReturning
#6Jordan FaisonFort Lauderdale, FLWR0.8 pts57% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#1Jaden GreathouseAustin, TXWR0.7 pts51% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbReturning
#14Micah GilbertCharlotte, NCWR0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#22Aneyas WilliamsHannibal, MORB0.7 pts61% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 210 lbReturning
#7Ty WashingtonLeesburg, GATE0.7 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 253 lbReturning
#54Anthonie KnappRoswell, GAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 304 lbReturning
#70Ashton CraigLawrenceburg, INOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 310 lbReturning
#57Cam HerronIndianapolis, INOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 291 lbReturning
#56Charles JagusahRock Island, ILOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 330 lbReturning
#55Chris TerekGlen Ellyn, ILOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 321 lbReturning
#52Devan HoustanMississauga, ABOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbReturning
#76Guerby LambertBoston, MAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 325 lbReturning
#64Joe OttingTopeka, KSOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbReturning
#58Matty AugustineGreenwich, CTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 310 lbReturning
#60Max AndersonSaint Paul, MNOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 303 lbReturning
#78Owen StrebigBrookfield, WIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 302 lbReturning
#77Peter JonesCoatesville, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 315 lbReturning
#61Robbie WollanSaint Paul, MNOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning
#71Styles PrescodFishers, INOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 298 lbReturning
#75Sullivan AbsherBelmont, NCOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 320 lbReturning
#74Will BlackLondon, ONOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 316 lbReturning
#88Armel MukamLaprairie, PQDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 296 lbReturning
#5Boubacar TraoreBoston, MADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 253 lbReturning
#95Bryce YoungCharlotte, NCDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 260 lbReturning
#6Christopher Burgess Jr.Chicago, ILDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning
#42Cole MullinsHoschton, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 280 lbReturning
#60Davion DixonHomestead, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 316 lbReturning
#40Dominik HulakGlendale Heights, ILDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbReturning
#56Elijah HughesArlington, VADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbReturning
#91Gordy SulfstedCincinnati, OHDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 275 lbReturning
#47Jason OnyeNorth Providence, RIDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbReturning
#94Joe ReiffElmhurst, ILDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 264 lbReturning
#10Loghan ThomasKaty, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbReturning
#59Sean Sevillano Jr.Clearwater, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 320 lbReturning
#5Cam WilliamsGlen Ellyn, ILWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 201 lbReturning
#17Elijah BurressTotowa, NJWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#8Jerome Bettis Jr.Atlanta, GAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 199 lbReturning
#19Logan SaldateGilroy, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#33Matt JefferyCheshire, CTWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbReturning
#31Xavier SouthallAlexandria, VAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning
#87Cooper FlanaganPleasant Hill, CATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 250 lbReturning
#42Henry GarrityBloomfield Hills, MITE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbReturning
#85Jack LarsenCharlotte, NCTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 248 lbReturning
#88James FlaniganGreen Bay, WITE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 251 lbReturning
#29Christian GraySaint Louis, MOCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 186 lbReturning
#1Dallas GoldenTampa, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 191 lbReturning
#15Leonard MooreRound Rock, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 197 lbReturning
#24Mark Zackery IVIndianapolis, INCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 184 lbReturning
#8Adon ShulerIrvington, NJS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 202 lbReturning
#25Brandon LoganFort Wayne, INS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 197 lbReturning
#9Brauntae JohnsonFort Wayne, INS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning
#22Ethan LongMilford, CTS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 204 lbReturning
#28Luke TalichCody, WYS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 204 lbReturning
#34Drayk BowenSaint John, INLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 232 lbReturning
#4Jaiden AusberryBaton Rouge, LALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 226 lbReturning
#3Jaylen SneedHilton Head Island, SCLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 227 lbReturning
#43Kahanu KiaKaneohe, HILB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning
#16Ko'o KiaKahalu'u, HILB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning
#27Kyngstonn Viliamu-AsaInland Empire, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbReturning
#19Madden FaraimoOceanside, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbReturning
#35Teddy RezacOmaha, NELB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 226 lbReturning
#38Tommy PowlusGranger, INLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 213 lbReturning
#21Kedren YoungLufkin, TXRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 234 lbReturning
#2Nolan James Jr.Westwood, NJRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 212 lbReturning
#18Erik SchmidtMilwaukee, WIP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 211 lbReturning
#49Andrew KrosLouisville, KYLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 227 lbReturning
#96Joseph VinciWestwood, MALS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 231 lbReturning
#12Blake HebertBoxford, MAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′2″ · 216 lbReturning
#51Ben NicholsDavison, MIOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 320 lbNew / unverified
#68Charlie ThomDarien, CTOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#65Grayson McKeoghPerkasie, PAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 298 lbNew / unverified
#67Gregory PatrickPortage, MIOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 281 lbNew / unverified
#50Sullivan GarvinAllegan, MIOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 315 lbNew / unverified
#66Tyler MerrillMechanicsburg, PAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 330 lbNew / unverified
#14Ebenezer EwetadeRaleigh, NCDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#90Elijah GoldenFredericksburg, VADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 292 lbNew / unverified
#44Rodney DunhamCharlotte, NCDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 242 lbNew / unverified
#55Tiki HolaBastrop, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
#15Brayden RobinsonRed Oak, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′7″ · 168 lbNew / unverified
#4Bubba FrazierSavannah, GAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 182 lbNew / unverified
#11Devin FitzgeraldParadise Valley, AZWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 208 lbNew / unverified
#16Dylan FaisonWeston, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 163 lbNew / unverified
#18Kaydon FinleyAledo, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 207 lbNew / unverified
#89Austin RatiganSouth Bend, INTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 223 lbNew / unverified
#24Ian PremerGreat Bend, KSTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 240 lbNew / unverified
#86Kaleb JohnsonMishawaka, INTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 241 lbNew / unverified
#84Preston FryzelHolland, OHTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#13Ayden PounceyOrlando, FLCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#26Chaz SmithKnoxville, TNCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 172 lbNew / unverified
#21Khary AdamsBaltimore, MDCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 187 lbNew / unverified
#32Nick ReddishCharlotte, NCCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#48Chase YoungEagan, MNS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 199 lbNew / unverified
#20Joey O'BrienRoxborough, PAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 203 lbNew / unverified
#30Patrick DownesDelray Beach, FLS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 204 lbNew / unverified
#23Ja'Kobe ClapperCincinnati, OHLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#58Thomas Davis Jr.Weddington, NCLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#10Noah GrubbsLake Mary, FLQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′4″ · 209 lbNew / unverified
#9Teddy JarrardKennesaw, GAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′4″ · 207 lbNew / unverified
#26Javian OsborneForney, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#20Jonaz WaltonCarrollton, GARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 214 lbNew / unverified
#37Kurt SmithSouth Beloit, ILRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 187 lbNew / unverified
#46Matt WilliamsNaperville, ILRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#36Micah DrescherHinsdale, ILPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 196 lbNew / unverified
#35Spencer PorathBrownsburg, INPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#39Jasper ScaifeWest PerthP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1WisconsinNon-conference · Lambeau Field · 4M 17–34 · 82% win
NeutralSep 67:30 PM EDT · model ↗2
RiceNon-conference · Notre Dame Stadium · 4M 10–41 · 96% win
HomeSep 123:30 PM EDT · model ↗3
Michigan StateNon-conference · Notre Dame Stadium · 4M 15–38 · 90% win
HomeSep 197:30 PM EDT · model ↗4
PurdueNon-conference · Ross-Ade Stadium · 4M 35–18 · 83% win
AwaySep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
North CarolinaNon-conference · Kenan Stadium · 4M 34–17 · 83% win
AwayOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
StanfordNon-conference · Notre Dame Stadium · 4M 13–38 · 92% win
HomeOct 103:30 PM EDT · model ↗7
BYUNon-conference · LaVell Edwards Stadium · 4M 29–24 · 62% win
AwayOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
NavyNon-conference · Gillette Stadium · 4M 37–18 · 86% win
NeutralOct 3112:00 PM EDT · model ↗10
MiamiNon-conference · Notre Dame Stadium · 4M 23–28 · 61% win
HomeNov 77:30 PM EST · model ↗11
Boston CollegeNon-conference · Notre Dame Stadium · 4M 14–39 · 92% win
HomeNov 143:30 PM EST · model ↗12
SMUNon-conference · Notre Dame Stadium · 4M 20–33 · 76% win
HomeNov 217:30 PM EST · model ↗13
SyracuseNon-conference · JMA Wireless Dome · 4M 36–15 · 88% win
AwayNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case8 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint10 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case12 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Notre Dame diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The matchup preserves the talent edge, the opponent cannot create pressure with four, and the price has not already charged a contender tax.
The case rests on ranking, résumé or home-field narrative rather than a repeatable down-to-down advantage.
Whether the new personnel produces the role-specific answers described above—not merely whether the most recognizable names play.
Season-defining questionWill veteran depth and a favorable path convert championship expectations into a complete season?