The 2026 outlook
Can a loaded roster finally carry its regular-season standard through the last two rounds?
Oregon opens No. 2 nationally and No. 2 of 18 in the Big Ten. The 4M baseline rates the roster 24.3 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 8.2 regular-season wins.
Oregon belongs in the championship conversation because the baseline expects control, not survival. Against most of the schedule, this roster should create an efficiency advantage without needing turnover luck or unsustainable red-zone results. The real evaluation begins when that advantage narrows against another top-15 team.
Moore returns after a 72-percent completion season, and Oregon again has the depth to overwhelm most of the schedule. The evaluation is no longer about baseline talent; it is about protection and execution when the playoff compresses every margin.
The schedule grades No. 24 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Oregon beats its 8.2-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Pressure pointDante Moore · QB2025: 13–2
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachDan Lanning48–8 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger13 in · 31 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#8Dylan RaiolaBuford, GAQB1.5 pts29% starter · 76% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Nebraska
#2Iverson HooksPike Road, ALWR0.8 pts59% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom UAB
#22Simeon PricePensacola, FLRB0.5 pts53% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Colorado
#75Michael Bennett IIIAtlanta, GAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 302 lbTransfer infrom Yale
#0D'Antre RobinsonOrlando, FLDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom North Carolina
#99Jerome SimmonsBamberg, SCDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 330 lbTransfer infrom UL Monroe
#19Andrew OleshCenter Valley, PATE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 226 lbTransfer infrom Penn State
#17Markus DixonPhiladelphia, PATE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 265 lbTransfer infrom Clemson
#14Aaron Scott Jr.Springfield, OHDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Ohio State
#15Carl Williams IVBaton Rouge, LADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 192 lbTransfer infrom Baylor
#3Koi PerichEsko, MNDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Minnesota
#27Bleu DantzlerChandler, AZLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 241 lbTransfer infrom Oregon State
#35Keaton EmmettLake Oswego, ORPK0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 198 lbTransfer infrom Nevada
#5Dante MooreDetroit, MIQB3.9 pts70% starter · 76% conf.6′3″ · 206 lbReturning
#1Dakorien MooreDuncanville, TXWR0.8 pts58% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbReturning
#3Jeremiah McClellanSt. Louis, MOWR0.7 pts52% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#9Jamari JohnsonInglewood, CATE0.7 pts51% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 257 lbReturning
#6Dierre Hill Jr.Centralia, ILRB0.6 pts58% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 205 lbReturning
#68Auston MimsAkron, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 316 lbReturning
#67Beau CressAllenPortland, OROL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 317 lbReturning
#66Bryce BoultonPalm Desert, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 300 lbReturning
#74Dave IuliPuyallup, WAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 332 lbReturning
#50Demetri ManningBellevue, WAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 330 lbReturning
#53Devin BrooksClackamas, OROL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 290 lbReturning
#55Douglas UtuLas Vegas, NVOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 335 lbReturning
#59Fox CraderVancouver, WAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 315 lbReturning
#78Gernorris WilsonLakeland, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 318 lbReturning
#72Iapani LalouluHonolulu, HIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 329 lbReturning
#73Kawika RogersKapaa, HIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 320 lbReturning
#56Trent FergusonSalem, OROL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 320 lbReturning
#57Zac StascauskyPortland, OROL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 285 lbReturning
#58Ziyare AddisonTampa, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 315 lbReturning
#55Matthew JohnsonConcord, CADE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbReturning
#52A'Mauri WashingtonDetroit, MIDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 330 lbReturning
#42Aydin BrelandSanta Ana, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 304 lbReturning
#1Bear AlexanderTerrell, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 302 lbReturning
#0Jordon DavisonSanta Ana, CARB0.6 pts63% role · 76% conf.6′0″ · 236 lbReturning
#89Brady BidwellEugene, ORWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbReturning
#80Dillon GreshamHemet, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#7Evan StewartFrisco, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbReturning
#88Jack ResslerIrvine, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbReturning
#84Jovon McRae IICamden, NJWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 218 lbReturning
#82Nathan McCoy IIDallas, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbReturning
#87A.J. PuglianoMedford, ORTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbReturning
#21Aaron FlowersForney, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 208 lbReturning
#4Brandon Finney Jr.Owings Mills, MDDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 203 lbReturning
#34Cruz RushingTucson, AZDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning
#18Dorian BrewConroe, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning
#7Ify ObidegwuBaltimore, MDDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 203 lbReturning
#2Na'eem OffordBirmingham, ALDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning
#12Peyton WoodyardFullerton, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 208 lbReturning
#8Trey McNuttCleveland, OHDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#30Xavier BarksdaleSan Diego, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 182 lbReturning
#33Zach GrishamPortland, ORDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 204 lbReturning
#23Brayden PlattYelm, WALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbReturning
#9Devon JacksonOmaha, NELB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbReturning
#11Dylan WilliamsCarson, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning
#47Elijah RushingTucson, AZLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 275 lbReturning
#13Gavin NixBradenton, FLLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 230 lbReturning
#46Jay HardenStevenson Ranch, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 219 lbReturning
#6Jerry MixonSan Francisco, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbReturning
#10Matayo UiagaleleiBellflower, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 272 lbReturning
#31Nasir WyattSanta Ana, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 228 lbReturning
#44Teitum TuiotiLaie, HILB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 263 lbReturning
#38Will StratonHonolulu, HILB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbReturning
#21Da'Jaun RiggsWashington, DCRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning
#40Zander QuinnHilo, HIRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′7″ · 170 lbReturning
#97Gage HurychWest Linn, ORPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 189 lbReturning
#25Rocco GrazianoEugene, ORPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#11Akili Smith Jr.San Diego, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′5″ · 231 lbReturning
#12Brock ThomasEugene, ORQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.5′11″ · 191 lbReturning
#14Ryder HayesGrandview, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′2″ · 193 lbReturning
#54Aiden LeweyEugene, OROL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#79Immanuel IheanachoBaltimore, MDOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#70Koloi KeliHonolulu, HIOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#65Solomon KroekerLake Oswego, OROL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#77Tommy TofiSan Francisco, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#90Anthony JonesIrvine, CADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#91Derrick Brown Jr.Fort Washington, MDDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#32Tony CumberlandColumbus, OHDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#30Aaron BidwellEugene, ORWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#13Gatlin BairBurley, IDWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#83Hudson LewisBoise, IDWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#24Hunter VaughnEugene, ORWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#10Jalen LottFrisco, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#15Messiah HamptonRochester, NYWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#85Cole NewtonTualatin, ORTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#81Dayton RaiolaBuford, GATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#18Kendre HarrisonReidsville, NCTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#29Arlo HendersonYelm, WADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · —New / unverified
#16Azel BanagColumbia, SCDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#37Braxton SingletonSalem, ORDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#39Cole ThomasPortland, ORDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#5Davon BenjaminWestlake Village, CADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#22Devin JacksonWinter Garden, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#24Jett WashingtonLas Vegas, NVDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#17Tre WatsonSacramento, CADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#20Xavier LherisseMelbourne, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#28Anthony Jones Jr.Mobile, ALLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#19Braylon HodgeEnglewood, COLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#35Brody ThomasEugene, ORLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#41Dutch HoriskBellflower, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#45Hudson CoePortland, ORLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#51Prince TavizonSan Diego, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#25Tristan PhillipsVentura, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#16TC ManumaleunaSalem, ORQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#26Brandon SmithFresno, CARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#27Killian SombePortland, ORRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#4Tradarian BallTexarkana, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#39Bailey EttridgeLara, VICP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 207 lbNew / unverified
#49Jack NicoliSalem, ORP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
#36Michael SbuttoniBallston Lake, NYP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 193 lbNew / unverified
#71RJ ToddRockford, MILS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 189 lbNew / unverified
#64Thomas DonkerbrookPhoenix, AZLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · —New / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Boise StateNon-conference · Autzen Stadium · 4M 17–35 · 85% win
HomeSep 53:30 PM EDT · model ↗2
Oklahoma StateNon-conference · Boone Pickens Stadium · 4M 36–16 · 87% win
AwaySep 1212:00 PM EDT · model ↗3
Portland StateNon-conference · Autzen Stadium · 4M 4–49 · 99% win
HomeSep 1810:30 PM EDT · model ↗4USCConference · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · 4M 28–25 · 56% win
AwaySep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
UCLAConference · Autzen Stadium · 4M 16–36 · 86% win
HomeOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
NebraskaConference · Autzen Stadium · 4M 17–36 · 84% win
HomeOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
IllinoisConference · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL) · 4M 31–22 · 67% win
AwayOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
NorthwesternConference · Autzen Stadium · 4M 17–35 · 85% win
HomeOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
Ohio StateConference · Ohio Stadium · 4M 22–28 · 37% win
AwayNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
MichiganConference · Autzen Stadium · 4M 21–32 · 74% win
HomeNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
Michigan StateConference · Spartan Stadium · 4M 35–17 · 84% win
AwayNov 208:00 PM EST · model ↗13
WashingtonConference · Autzen Stadium · 4M 21–31 · 71% win
HomeNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case6 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint8 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case10 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Oregon diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The matchup preserves the talent edge, the opponent cannot create pressure with four, and the price has not already charged a contender tax.
The case rests on ranking, résumé or home-field narrative rather than a repeatable down-to-down advantage.
Whether the new personnel produces the role-specific answers described above—not merely whether the most recognizable names play.
Season-defining questionCan a loaded roster finally carry its regular-season standard through the last two rounds?