The 2026 outlook
Is the country's most difficult schedule too demanding for a playoff margin of error?
Texas opens No. 8 nationally and No. 2 of 16 in the SEC. The 4M baseline rates the roster 18.2 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 7.4 regular-season wins.
Texas has a credible playoff profile, but not enough separation to absorb repeated mistakes. Its best version can win a high-level matchup; the question is whether that version appears often enough to navigate the conference race without spending the playoff margin for error too early.
Manning enters year two as the starter after 36 total touchdowns. The receiving group is deeper and the line more experienced, but the defense must replace premium pieces while facing nine opponents projected inside the national top 60.
The schedule is a defining variable: it projects No. 1 nationally, with No. 1 representing the hardest slate. Texas can play good football and still finish below public expectations if it loses the possession battles in its highest-leverage games. This is why the 7.4-win projection may look conservative relative to the power rating.
Pressure pointArch Manning · QB2025: 10–3
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachSteve Sarkisian48–20 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger22 in · 28 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#19MJ MorrisCarrollton, GAQB1.2 pts22% starter · 64% conf.6′1″ · 201 lbTransfer infrom Coastal Carolina
#2Hollywood SmothersCharlotte, NCRB0.8 pts87% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 193 lbTransfer infrom NC State
#0Raleek BrownStockton, CARB0.8 pts81% role · 76% conf.5′9″ · 193 lbTransfer infrom Arizona State
#8Cam ColemanPhenix City, ALWR0.7 pts56% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 204 lbTransfer infrom Auburn
#18Sterling BerkhalterCincinnati, OHWR0.7 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 196 lbTransfer infrom Wake Forest
#15Michael MasunasTucson, AZTE0.6 pts44% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 259 lbTransfer infrom Michigan State
#56Dylan SikorskiSumner, WAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 335 lbTransfer infrom Oregon State
#79Jonte NewmanCypress, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Texas A&M
#50Laurence Seymore IIIMiami Gardens, FLOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 316 lbTransfer infrom Western Kentucky
#71Melvin SianiHamilton, ONOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 317 lbTransfer infrom Wake Forest
#68Paris PattersonEast St. Louis, ILOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 354 lbTransfer infrom SMU
#95Ian GeffrardMableton, GADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 375 lbTransfer infrom Arkansas
#96Zion WilliamsLufkin, TXDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 370 lbTransfer infrom LSU
#5Bo MascoeKissimmee, FLDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 199 lbTransfer infrom Rutgers
#36Nick HudsonHouston, TXDB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 179 lbTransfer infrom Brown
#45Darius SnowFrisco, TXLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 219 lbTransfer infrom Michigan State
#28Justin CryerKaty, TXLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 241 lbTransfer infrom Florida State
#44Markus BoswellAustin, TXLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 228 lbTransfer infrom Akron
#3Rasheem BilesColumbus, OHLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 222 lbTransfer infrom Pittsburgh
#43Mac ChiumentoDaytona Beach, FLP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 228 lbTransfer infrom Florida State
#47Trey DubucFort Lauderdale, FLLS0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 213 lbTransfer infrom New Mexico
#44Gianni SpeticChardon, OHPK0.3 pts38% role · 52% conf.6′3″ · 221 lbTransfer infrom Memphis
#16Arch ManningNew Orleans, LAQB4.0 pts77% starter · 76% conf.6′4″ · 222 lbReturning
#1Ryan WingoSt. Louis, MOWR0.8 pts62% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 214 lbReturning
#3Emmett Mosley VChicago, ILWR0.8 pts54% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 199 lbReturning
#7Kaliq LockettSachse, TXWR0.7 pts51% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 181 lbReturning
#77Andre CojoeGrand Prairie, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 339 lbReturning
#73Brandon BakerOntario, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbReturning
#69Brooks Kieschnick Jr.San Antonio, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 268 lbReturning
#62Connor RobertsonAustin, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 316 lbReturning
#58Devin ColemanCedar Hill, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 340 lbReturning
#76Jackson ChristianPort Neches, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 308 lbReturning
#75Jaydon ChatmanHarker Heights, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 330 lbReturning
#78Jordan ColemanCedar Hill, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 356 lbReturning
#64Robert SweeneyDallas, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 297 lbReturning
#74Trevor GoosbyMelissa, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 325 lbReturning
#17Daylan McCutcheonLucas, TXWR0.6 pts50% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 183 lbReturning
#1Colin SimmonsDallas, TXEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 246 lbReturning
#92Colton VasekAustin, TXEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 252 lbReturning
#40Lance JacksonTexarkana, TXEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 274 lbReturning
#46Smith OrogboHouston, TXEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 238 lbReturning
#19Zina UmeozuluAllen, TXEDGE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 272 lbReturning
#97Alex JanuaryDuncanville, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 308 lbReturning
#93Hero KanuGeltendorfDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 309 lbReturning
#53Isaiah ColemanCedar Hill, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 299 lbReturning
#90Josiah SharmaFolsom, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 341 lbReturning
#15Justus TerryManchester, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 289 lbReturning
#88Maraad WatsonIrvington, NJDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 333 lbReturning
#33Myron CharlesPort Charlotte, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 312 lbReturning
#31James SimonShreveport, LARB0.6 pts67% role · 64% conf.5′11″ · 208 lbReturning
#86Hudson PowellAustin, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 198 lbReturning
#35Rett AndersenSan Antonio, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 193 lbReturning
#89Ty BoatrightKingwood, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning
#48Bryce ChambersAustin, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 219 lbReturning
#85Emaree WinstonCalhoun, GATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 245 lbReturning
#82Ridge BarkerLucas, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 239 lbReturning
#83Spencer ShannonSan Clemente, CATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 260 lbReturning
#87Will RandleNew Orleans, LATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 249 lbReturning
#2Derek Williams Jr.New Iberia, LADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 199 lbReturning
#29Graceson LittletonTampa, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 182 lbReturning
#48Jackson DuffeySpring Branch, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbReturning
#4Jelani McDonaldWaco, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 201 lbReturning
#9Jonah WilliamsGalveston, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbReturning
#23Jordon Johnson-RubellFort Worth, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 212 lbReturning
#8Kade PhillipsMissouri City, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 191 lbReturning
#6Kobe BlackWaco, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 202 lbReturning
#35McCoy BruceBoerne, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 184 lbReturning
#27Wardell MackBaton Rouge, LADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 183 lbReturning
#24Warren RobersonRed Oak, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 189 lbReturning
#17Xavier FilsaimeMcKinney, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 193 lbReturning
#13Zelus HicksAtlanta, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 183 lbReturning
#41Ziky UmeozuluAllen, TXDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 208 lbReturning
#81Nick TownsendHouston, TXTE0.5 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbReturning
#14Brad SpenceHouston, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 249 lbReturning
#32Brady SarkisianNewport Beach, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning
#43Eric GarzaSouthlake, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 212 lbReturning
#37Jonathan CunninghamFort Worth, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 198 lbReturning
#33Carson BergerHouston, TXRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbReturning
#21Ryan NiblettHouston, TXRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 189 lbReturning
#11Michael Terry IIISan Antonio, TXRB0.3 pts46% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 229 lbReturning
#46Spencer BarnettAustin, TXPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbReturning
#9Karle Lacey Jr.Saraland, ALQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′0″ · 188 lbReturning
#25Luke DunhamAustin, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′3″ · 182 lbReturning
#51John Turntine IIIFort Worth, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#70Kaden SchererGeorgetown, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 291 lbNew / unverified
#72Nicolas RobertsonSpring, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 349 lbNew / unverified
#80Brinley TitaHumble, TXEDGE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 252 lbNew / unverified
#94Jamarion CarltonTemple, TXEDGE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#99Richard WesleySylmar, CAEDGE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 258 lbNew / unverified
#55Elijah AliDowney, CADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 306 lbNew / unverified
#52James JohnsonFort Myers, FLDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 279 lbNew / unverified
#14Chris StewartMissouri City, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 184 lbNew / unverified
#39Evan EnderlinCarrollton, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#4Jermaine Bishop Jr.Willis, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 166 lbNew / unverified
#13Kohen BrownDallas, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 202 lbNew / unverified
#88Charlie JilekPortage, MITE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 238 lbNew / unverified
#21Hayward Howard Jr.New Orleans, LADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 182 lbNew / unverified
#11Samari MatthewsCharlotte, NCDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 197 lbNew / unverified
#25Toray DavisThornton, CODB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 197 lbNew / unverified
#31Yaheim RileyMiami, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 187 lbNew / unverified
#18Kosi OkpalaHouston, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#30Rocky CummingsCarlsbad, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 227 lbNew / unverified
#16Tyler AtkinsonLawrenceville, GALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 219 lbNew / unverified
#6Dia BellFort Lauderdale, FLQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′3″ · 206 lbNew / unverified
#5Derrek CooperLauderhill, FLRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 212 lbNew / unverified
#28Jett WalkerGeorgetown, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 224 lbNew / unverified
#49Jake CollettRinggold, GAPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 182 lbNew / unverified
#45Mikey BukauskasProsper, TXP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#42Trott O'NealThe Colony, TXLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 224 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Texas StateNon-conference · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · 4M 20–34 · 78% win
HomeSep 53:30 PM EDT · model ↗2
Ohio StateNon-conference · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · 4M 27–23 · 40% win
HomeSep 127:30 PM EDT · model ↗3
UTSANon-conference · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · 4M 19–33 · 79% win
HomeSep 198:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
TennesseeConference · Neyland Stadium · 4M 27–27 · 50% win
AwaySep 2612:00 PM EDT · model ↗6
OklahomaConference · Cotton Bowl · 4M 26–23 · 55% win
NeutralOct 103:30 PM EDT · model ↗7
FloridaConference · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · 4M 21–31 · 70% win
HomeOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
Ole MissConference · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · 4M 25–29 · 59% win
HomeOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
Mississippi StateConference · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · 4M 19–33 · 79% win
HomeOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
MissouriConference · Memorial Stadium · 4M 26–24 · 54% win
AwayNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
LSUConference · Tiger Stadium (LA) · 4M 26–24 · 55% win
AwayNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
ArkansasConference · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium · 4M 21–35 · 77% win
HomeNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
Texas A&MConference · Kyle Field · 4M 25–27 · 44% win
AwayNov 277:30 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case5 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint7 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case10 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Texas diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The matchup preserves the talent edge, the opponent cannot create pressure with four, and the price has not already charged a contender tax.
A difficult opponent is paired with short rest, uncertain quarterback availability or a line that assumes best-case continuity.
Whether the new personnel produces the role-specific answers described above—not merely whether the most recognizable names play.
Season-defining questionIs the country's most difficult schedule too demanding for a playoff margin of error?