The 2026 outlook
Was the Big 12 title a breakthrough or the start of a sustainable national profile?
Texas Tech opens No. 7 nationally and No. 1 of 16 in the Big 12. The 4M baseline rates the roster 19.1 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 8.7 regular-season wins.
Texas Tech has a credible playoff profile, but not enough separation to absorb repeated mistakes. Its best version can win a high-level matchup; the question is whether that version appears often enough to navigate the conference race without spending the playoff margin for error too early.
Hammond takes over an offense that averaged 39 points, but many of the stars behind the 2025 breakthrough must be replaced. The roster remains talented enough to control the Big 12 if the new core settles early.
The schedule grades No. 68 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Texas Tech beats its 8.7-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Pressure pointWill Hammond · QB2025: 12–2
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachJoey McGuire35–18 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger23 in · 20 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#18Kirk FrancisTulsa, OKQB1.9 pts37% starter · 76% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Tulsa
#6Jalen JonesBirmingham, ALWR0.8 pts54% role · 64% conf.5′8″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Alabama State
#4Kenny JohnsonYork, PAWR0.7 pts52% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Pittsburgh
#11Malcolm SimmonsMontgomery, ALWR0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Auburn
#9Donte Lee Jr.Baltimore, MDWR0.7 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Liberty
#85Jett CarpenterMedford, ORTE0.6 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 255 lbTransfer infrom Nevada
#54Jordan ChurchFort Myers, FLOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom Louisville
#92Bryce ButlerToronto, ONDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 320 lbTransfer infrom Washington
#99Jojo JohnsonSalt Lake City, UTDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 290 lbTransfer infrom Oregon State
#1Julien LaventureUpper Darby, PADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 290 lbTransfer infrom Akron
#98Mateen IbirogbaClarksburg, MDDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Wake Forest
#4Davin MartinHouston, TXCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom UTSA
#28Jordan RogersBellmead, TXS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Pittsburg State
#20Adam TrickDayton, OHLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom Miami (OH)
#56Amarie FlemingMayo, FLLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Allen University
#15Austin RomaineHillsboro, MOLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbTransfer infrom Kansas State
#9Corey Platt Jr.Little Rock, ARLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Houston
#8Jamond MathisSt. Louis, MOLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom Kent State
#2Trey WhiteSan Diego, CALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 250 lbTransfer infrom San Diego State
#39Jacob HandMansfield, TXPK0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbTransfer infrom Texas Tech
#49Will KarollMosman, NSWP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom UCLA
#15Will HammondAustin, TXQB3.3 pts62% starter · 76% conf.6′2″ · 210 lbReturning
#7Terrance Carter Jr.Killeen, TXTE0.8 pts60% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 245 lbReturning
#8Cameron DickeyAustin, TXRB0.8 pts83% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 215 lbReturning
#3Coy EakinStephenville, TXWR0.7 pts53% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#20J'Koby WilliamsBeckville, TXRB0.7 pts77% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbReturning
#52Cash ClevelandRockwall, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 300 lbReturning
#61Connor CartyProsper, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbReturning
#65D'Anthis Upshaw Jr.Irving, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 305 lbReturning
#74Daniel SillCollege Station, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 310 lbReturning
#73Danilo GuberinichAnn Arbor, MIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbReturning
#77Elias GillenRapid City, SDOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 315 lbReturning
#78Ellis DavisProsper, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 305 lbReturning
#75Garin MaleyLa Vista, NEOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbReturning
#53Holton HendrixLubbock, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbReturning
#79Howard SampsonHouston, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 330 lbReturning
#57Hunter ZambranoWeston, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbReturning
#66Jackson HildebrandSan Antonio, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 295 lbReturning
#70Jacob PontonDripping Springs, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 315 lbReturning
#50Patrick McMathKaty, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 290 lbReturning
#68Ren BrownStanton, NEOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbReturning
#72Sheridan WilsonArgyle, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbReturning
#1Micah HudsonTemple, TXWR0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning
#10A.J. Holmes Jr.Houston, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbReturning
#93Dylan SingletonNew Iberia, LADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbReturning
#51Jayden CofieldAustin, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 330 lbReturning
#96Keyshawn WilliamsHouston, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 315 lbReturning
#14Bryson JonesFrisco, TXWR0.5 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 195 lbReturning
#80Kai PowellSpring, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#17Leyton StoneLubbock, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 200 lbReturning
#19Michael DeverLubbock, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning
#88Quintaelyn JoynerAustin, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning
#21Tristian GentryStephenville, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 180 lbReturning
#83Jack EsparzaAustin, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbReturning
#89Jason LlewellynAledo, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 250 lbReturning
#27Amier BoydPhoenix, AZCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbReturning
#16Ashton HamptonPearland, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 175 lbReturning
#14Brice PollockSnellville, GACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#12Tarrion GrantSumter, SCCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbReturning
#28Braylan McDonaldTerrell, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#7Brenden JordanMansfield, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning
#24Malik EsquerraKilleen, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbReturning
#22Marcus Ramon-EdwardsAbilene, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbReturning
#0Mikal Harrison-PilotTemple, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbReturning
#21Miquel Dingle Jr.Charleston, SCS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbReturning
#5Oliver Miles IIIEl Campo, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbReturning
#3Peyton MorganRound Rock, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning
#35Adam HillAlbany, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbReturning
#33Ansel NedoreRound Rock, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 260 lbReturning
#13Ben RobertsHaslet, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 245 lbReturning
#11Brock GolwasFlower Mound, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 240 lbReturning
#97Charles Anderson Jr.Houston, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 275 lbReturning
#43Chris LemonsProsper, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbReturning
#6John CurryLubbock, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbReturning
#86Sean RobinsonGreenbrae, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 225 lbReturning
#40Wesley SmithMidland, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 225 lbReturning
#35Michael Henderson IIIDallas, TXRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 185 lbReturning
#0Quinten JoynerAustin, TXRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 220 lbReturning
#48Stone HarringtonColleyville, TXPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbReturning
#37Ian HersheyPocatello, IDP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#47Rylan VaganaHuntington Beach, CALS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbReturning
#16Holden PhillipsLubbock, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning
#10Lloyd Jones IIIHitchcock, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′4″ · 215 lbReturning
#71Bryce GilmoreProsper, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#51Felix OjoMansfield, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#76Jacob CrowKnoxville, TNOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′9″ · 310 lbNew / unverified
#56Jerald MaysPflugerville, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 315 lbNew / unverified
#90Ayden JohnsonSulphur Springs, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 340 lbNew / unverified
#95Christian BruceAlpharetta, GADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 270 lbNew / unverified
#91Krush JohnsonAmarillo, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#13Chase CampbellLubbock, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#84Imari JehielForney, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#5Matt LudwigBillings, MTTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 255 lbNew / unverified
#19Cam WyattHouston, TXCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.— · 175 lbNew / unverified
#30Jamarn Grant IIFort Worth, TXCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#29Luke HamiltonFayetteville, NCCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#17Noah LewisTerrell, TXCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#18S'Vioarean MartinPalestine, TXCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#26Aaron BradshawCrowley, TXS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#25Donovan WebbFrisco, TXS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#23Maddox QuillerPflugerville, TXS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#31Cord NolanBixby, OKLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 220 lbNew / unverified
#36Demarcus MarksHouston, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#34Kaegan AshMount Enterprise, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#12Stephen CannonSavannah, GAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#28Ashton RowdenTexarkana, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#33Loic TshibanguBrusselsRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#32Sawyer WilkersonStephenville, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Abilene ChristianNon-conference · Jones AT&T Stadium · 4M 11–38 · 94% win
HomeSep 57:00 PM EDT · model ↗2Oregon StateNon-conference · Reser Stadium · 4M 34–15 · 85% win
AwaySep 127:30 PM EDT · model ↗3
HoustonConference · Jones AT&T Stadium · 4M 18–31 · 76% win
HomeSep 188:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
Sam HoustonNon-conference · Jones AT&T Stadium · 4M 9–40 · 96% win
HomeSep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
ColoradoConference · Folsom Field · 4M 31–17 · 78% win
AwayOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
Arizona StateConference · Jones AT&T Stadium · 4M 17–30 · 77% win
HomeOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
CincinnatiConference · Nippert Stadium · 4M 31–20 · 74% win
AwayOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
ArizonaConference · Jones AT&T Stadium · 4M 19–29 · 72% win
HomeOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
West VirginiaConference · Jones AT&T Stadium · 4M 14–34 · 86% win
HomeNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
Oklahoma StateConference · Boone Pickens Stadium · 4M 33–15 · 84% win
AwayNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
BaylorConference · McLane Stadium · 4M 30–20 · 70% win
AwayNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
TCUConference · Jones AT&T Stadium · 4M 19–30 · 73% win
HomeNov 268:00 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case6 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint9 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case11 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Texas Tech diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The matchup preserves the talent edge, the opponent cannot create pressure with four, and the price has not already charged a contender tax.
The case rests on ranking, résumé or home-field narrative rather than a repeatable down-to-down advantage.
Whether the new personnel produces the role-specific answers described above—not merely whether the most recognizable names play.
Season-defining questionWas the Big 12 title a breakthrough or the start of a sustainable national profile?