The 2026 outlook
Will the roster hold up in the Sun Belt's physical, high-variance weekly environment?
Old Dominion opens No. 66 nationally and No. 2 of 14 in the Sun Belt. The 4M baseline rates the roster 0.1 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 5.9 regular-season wins.
Old Dominion sits near the model's break-even line, where quarterback development and close-game execution matter more than brand. A bowl is attainable, but the margin is too thin to assume last year's record—or a splashy transfer class—will repeat without supporting efficiency.
There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.
The schedule grades No. 105 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether Old Dominion beats its 5.9-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachRicky Rahne30–33 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger15 in · 21 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#2Jaxon PotterHuntington Beach, CAQB2.1 pts41% starter · 76% conf.6′5″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Washington State
#86Leon Haughton Jr.Richmond, VATE0.6 pts42% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 227 lbTransfer infrom Maryland
#50Brayden WalkerCulpeper, VAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 297 lbTransfer infrom Elon
#76Bubba CraigFort Wayne, INOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 312 lbTransfer infrom Arkansas
#70Khi'Len GatesJonesboro, AROL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 294 lbTransfer infrom Lincoln (MO)
#79Raykwon GoldthwaiteBirmingham, ALOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom North Alabama
#44Bucci FarmerAtlanta, GADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom App State
#0Zion AgnewColumbia, SCWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 167 lbTransfer infrom Lenoir Rhyne
#20Jivan BalyNorcross, GACB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbTransfer infrom NC State
#6Montrell ChapmanBatesville, MSLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 231 lbTransfer infrom Mississippi State
#6Trey HallVicksburg, MSRB0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Ole Miss
#99Andrew NelmsMarietta, GAPK0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Florida Atlantic
#10Quinn HenicleDowningtown, PAQB2.9 pts59% starter · 76% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbReturning
#11TJ JohnsonAlexandria, LAWR0.7 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 191 lbReturning
#17Sidney MbanasorPflugerville, TXWR0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 217 lbReturning
#60Braden EllisGreensboro, NCOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 300 lbReturning
#74Carson BradleyQuincy, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 315 lbReturning
#73Connor DrakeCharlotte, NCOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 325 lbReturning
#71Jack SheehanFuquay-Varina, NCOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 310 lbReturning
#69Logan CoxTopeka, KSOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 328 lbReturning
#3Devin RocheBaltimore, MDRB0.6 pts70% role · 76% conf.5′7″ · 172 lbReturning
#95Ahmaad FosterChester, PADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 280 lbReturning
#90Chris ForbesUpper Marlboro, MDDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 290 lbReturning
#9DeAndre LynchRocky Mount, NCDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbReturning
#91Gavin HarrisonAshburn, VADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 225 lbReturning
#40Hunter MaleckiLorton, VADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 255 lbReturning
#51Idrissa KamaraAlexandria, VADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 245 lbReturning
#4Javen GibsonChurch Point, LADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 245 lbReturning
#97LeDarrion MenterCornelius, NCDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 260 lbReturning
#94Lorenzo McFadden-PressleyLake City, SCDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 305 lbReturning
#92Lucas BanksBrunswick, MDDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 242 lbReturning
#5Maurki JamesLincoln, DERB0.5 pts63% role · 76% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbReturning
#8Josh RodriguezSomerville, NJWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 193 lbReturning
#81Leroy LewisGlen Allen, VAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbReturning
#83Ryan ThomasWashington, DCWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 175 lbReturning
#80Chris WarrenBirmingham, ALTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 220 lbReturning
#88Karl PetersonTallinTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 232 lbReturning
#89Nathan HartmanVirginia Beach, VATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 250 lbReturning
#5Brandon CrutchfieldWake Forest, NCCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbReturning
#28Chris BoykinsFresno, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 177 lbReturning
#15Je'Hahj SherrillStatesville, NCCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 173 lbReturning
#23Jorian HaynesRockmart, GACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 180 lbReturning
#26Justin WattsCharlotte, NCCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 170 lbReturning
#1Zion FrinkChesapeake, VACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#2Daevon IlesPort Arthur, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning
#11Kollin CollierMemphis, TNS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 191 lbReturning
#19Lucas StruckWaukee, IAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbReturning
#3Mario EasterlyHarrisburg, PAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 196 lbReturning
#39Martrez Chavious-FennerVirginia Beach, VAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 187 lbReturning
#7Ryan RameyMissouri City, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbReturning
#29Tavares Murray Jr.Bartow, FLS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbReturning
#16Trey CaverMontgomery, ALS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#22AJ AshworthGalax, VALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 230 lbReturning
#24Dirrick GoodmanFlorence, SCLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbReturning
#41Gage SawyersBluefield, VALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning
#18Jackson ForrestConcord, NCLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 225 lbReturning
#13Jed Olotu-JudahKaty, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbReturning
#10Koa NaotalaNewport News, VALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 230 lbReturning
#35LaDarius Adams IINewport News, VALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 225 lbReturning
#0Mario ThompsonRichmond, VALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbReturning
#28Troy MarquezHampton, VARB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 194 lbReturning
#48Mason ForteMargate City, NJPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 187 lbReturning
#93Nathanial EichnerTrinity, FLPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 160 lbReturning
#96Ian BrandtState College, PAP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 201 lbReturning
#97Mikhail IakovlevGreat Falls, VAP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning
#47Ashten DunmanMoneta, VALS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 200 lbReturning
#30Brendan DurkinFlorida, NYLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 226 lbReturning
#4Ryan HuffGulf Breeze, FLQB0.1 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′3″ · 221 lbReturning
#7Kendall HarrisConcord, NCWR0.5 pts33% role · 52% conf.6′1″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#75Demorrsion BrownCanton, MSOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 308 lbNew / unverified
#58Dory Lewis-WilsonChesapeake, VAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 293 lbNew / unverified
#78Keegan ParkerFredericksburg, VAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 275 lbNew / unverified
#72Kendrick HallWest Memphis, AROL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 299 lbNew / unverified
#66Mason ThrushMaize, KSOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#56Omar BenderSoso, MSOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 334 lbNew / unverified
#77Wesley LattusHerndon, VAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#31BJ CampbellSanford, FLDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#93Chris HilliardHuntersville, NCDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 283 lbNew / unverified
#98DJ ThompsonBronx, NYDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 255 lbNew / unverified
#88Malachi HarrisRoxboro, NCDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 260 lbNew / unverified
#12BJ BedgoodAlexander City, ALWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 177 lbNew / unverified
#19Brayden MyovelaWichita, KSWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 201 lbNew / unverified
#1JJ HarrellSardis, MSWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#21Steven BenguGlen Allen, VAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′8″ · 151 lbNew / unverified
#14Zialis BlackmonBiggersville, MSWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 191 lbNew / unverified
#13Lonnie JohnsonKeller, TXTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 242 lbNew / unverified
#84Taysean JonesStafford, VATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 211 lbNew / unverified
#21Eddie GuerraTallahassee, FLCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#8Greg JohnsonOvilla, TXCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 188 lbNew / unverified
#27Kingston GregoryOxford, MSCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 160 lbNew / unverified
#33Shaq LeaksBaytown, TXCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 166 lbNew / unverified
#12Asher HornEvansville, INS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#14Daniel PickensGautier, MSS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 187 lbNew / unverified
#25Will PhillipsTrussville, ALS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 182 lbNew / unverified
#17De'Veion McLilley-BuloYpsilanti, MILB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 205 lbNew / unverified
#32Ja'Mez DrummerSanford, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 226 lbNew / unverified
#34Jeremiah DeeseGreensboro, NCLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 196 lbNew / unverified
#38Landon KehoeDanville, PALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#42Talan BabinPonte Vedra, FLLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 215 lbNew / unverified
#9Brooklyn NaceYork, PAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′2″ · 199 lbNew / unverified
#18Landen AbernathyRichmond, VAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′2″ · 192 lbNew / unverified
#20CJ Jackson IIINorfolk, VARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#26Ja'Varien SalterOcala, FLRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Norfolk StateNon-conference · S.B. Ballard Stadium · 4M 11–39 · 94% win
HomeSep 56:00 PM EDT · model ↗2Virginia TechNon-conference · Lane Stadium · 4M 24–27 · 43% win
AwaySep 1212:00 PM EDT · model ↗3
East CarolinaNon-conference · S.B. Ballard Stadium · 4M 24–25 · 54% win
HomeSep 196:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
James MadisonConference · S.B. Ballard Stadium · 4M 25–24 · 48% win
HomeSep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
Georgia StateConference · Center Parc Stadium · 4M 30–20 · 71% win
AwayOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
App StateConference · Kidd Brewer Stadium · 4M 29–21 · 66% win
AwayOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7Georgia SouthernConference · S.B. Ballard Stadium · 4M 22–31 · 68% win
HomeOct 157:30 PM EDT · model ↗8
Louisiana TechConference · Joe Aillet Stadium · 4M 26–23 · 56% win
AwayOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9
MarshallConference · S.B. Ballard Stadium · 4M 23–28 · 61% win
HomeOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
Coastal CarolinaConference · Brooks Stadium (SC) · 4M 29–21 · 66% win
AwayNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗12
UConnNon-conference · Pratt & Whitney Stadium · 4M 27–24 · 57% win
AwayNov 213:30 PM EST · model ↗13
Southern MissConference · S.B. Ballard Stadium · 4M 21–29 · 68% win
HomeNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case4 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint6 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case8 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Old Dominion diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The number is below a full possession and Old Dominion's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionWill the roster hold up in the Sun Belt's physical, high-variance weekly environment?