USC 2026 Preview — No. 16 in the 4M 138

The 2026 outlook

Will line play and quarterback consistency survive the Big Ten's deepest tier of contenders?

USC opens No. 10 nationally and No. 4 of 18 in the Big Ten. The 4M baseline rates the roster 16.5 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 7.8 regular-season wins.

USC has a credible playoff profile, but not enough separation to absorb repeated mistakes. Its best version can win a high-level matchup; the question is whether that version appears often enough to navigate the conference race without spending the playoff margin for error too early.

The roster grades comfortably above the national average. The personnel question is not whether there is talent; it is whether new starters can inherit the high-leverage jobs—quarterback decisions, pass protection, third-down coverage and pass-rush production—without an early efficiency drop.

The schedule is a defining variable: it projects No. 19 nationally, with No. 1 representing the hardest slate. USC can play good football and still finish below public expectations if it loses the possession battles in its highest-leverage games. This is why the 7.8-win projection may look conservative relative to the power rating.

Personnel command center

Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.

The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.

Head coachLincoln Riley45–20 over the available CFBD career window

Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.

Portal ledger9 in · 22 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.

Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.

Quarterback71

Offensive line51

Receivers47

Defensive front52

Secondary50

InTerrell AndersonWR · from NC State · 4★

InJontez WilliamsCB · from Iowa State · 4★

InZuriah FisherEDGE · from Penn State · 4★

InAlex VanSumerenDL · from Michigan State · 3★

InTucker AshcraftTE · from Wisconsin · 3★

InDeven BryantLB · from Washington · 3★

InGianCarlo RufoLB · from Georgetown · 3★

InCarrington PierceCB · from Oklahoma State · 3★

InLachlan CarriganP · from Memphis

OutDevan ThompkinsDL · to Alabama · 4★

OutHusan LongstreetQB · to LSU · 4★

OutWalker LyonsTE · to BYU · 4★

4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.

QBJayden Maiava5.5 pts94% starter · usage + PPA + WEPA + roster continuity + QB starter probability

RBWaymond Jordan0.9 pts88% expected role · usage + PPA + WEPA + roster continuity

WRTanook Hines0.7 pts52% expected role · usage + PPA + roster continuity

RBKing Miller0.7 pts83% expected role · usage + PPA + WEPA + roster continuity

TECarson Tabaracci0.7 pts52% expected role · usage + PPA + roster continuity

WRTerrell Anderson0.7 pts48% expected role · usage + PPA + portal role

Find a player

PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity

#9Terrell AndersonDetroit, MIWR0.7 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom NC State

#18Zuriah FisherAliquippa, PADE0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 265 lbTransfer infrom Penn State

#91Alex VanSumerenBay City, MIDT0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Michigan State

#84Tucker AshcraftSeattle, WATE0.5 pts44% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 260 lbTransfer infrom Wisconsin

#28Carrington PierceRancho Cucamonga, CACB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State

#0Jontez WilliamsStarke, FLCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 200 lbTransfer infrom Iowa State

#17Deven BryantCarson, CALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Washington

#58GianCarlo RufoHonolulu, HILB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbTransfer infrom Georgetown

#35Lachlan CarriganMelbourne, VICP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbTransfer infrom Memphis

#14Jayden MaiavaLas Vegas, NVQB5.5 pts94% starter · 76% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbReturning

#2Waymond JordanPensacola, FLRB0.9 pts88% role · 76% conf.5′10″ · 210 lbReturning

#16Tanook HinesHouston, TXWR0.7 pts52% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning

#8King MillerCalabasas, CARB0.7 pts83% role · 76% conf.6′0″ · 225 lbReturning

#24Carson TabaracciPark City, UTTE0.7 pts52% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbReturning

#0Zacharyus WilliamsCarson, CAWR0.7 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbReturning

#70Aaron DunnSpanish Fork, UTOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 310 lbReturning

#77Alani NoaSacramento, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 315 lbReturning

#63Cash JacobsenJenks, OKOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 295 lbReturning

#72Elijah PaigePhoenix, AZOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 315 lbReturning

#79Elijah VaikonaLondonOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′8″ · 360 lbReturning

#65Erwin TaomiAnchorage, AKOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 375 lbReturning

#68Hayden TreterGreenwood Village, COOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 320 lbReturning

#74Justin TauanuuHuntington Beach, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 310 lbReturning

#60Kaylon MillerCalabasas, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 305 lbReturning

#67Kilian O'ConnorLadera Ranch, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 300 lbReturning

#75Ratumana BulabalavuStockton, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 325 lbReturning

#73Tobias RaymondVentura, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 310 lbReturning

#62Travis LeonardLong Beach, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 275 lbReturning

#52Willi WascherBellevue, WAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 310 lbReturning

#88Taniela TupouCarmichael, CATE0.6 pts52% role · 64% conf.6′3″ · 255 lbReturning

#10Braylan ShelbyFriendswood, TXDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 260 lbReturning

#95Jadyn RamosHouston, TXDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 250 lbReturning

#1Kameryn CrawfordMobile, ALDE0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 255 lbReturning

#89Brendan ChoChatsworth, CADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbReturning

#88Floyd BoucardMontreal, PQDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 315 lbReturning

#4Jahkeem StewartReserve, LADT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 295 lbReturning

#99Jamaal JarrettGreensboro, NCDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 360 lbReturning

#97Jide AbasiriPrior Lake, MNDT0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 280 lbReturning

#81Cameron SermonsSan Bernardino, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 160 lbReturning

#10Corey SimmsSt. Louis, MOWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 205 lbReturning

#18Romero IsonBaltimore, MDWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbReturning

#31Seth ZamoraMonrovia, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 175 lbReturning

#49Fisher MeltonLadera Ranch, CATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbReturning

#23Walter MatthewsHiram, GATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 305 lbReturning

#7Alex GrahamDetroit, MICB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning

#27Chasen JohnsonSanford, FLCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbReturning

#25Marcelles WilliamsCarson, CACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning

#16Prophet BrownSacramento, CACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning

#21RJ SermonsSan Bernardino, CACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning

#40Shawn SehraThousand Oaks, CACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 180 lbReturning

#37Trestin CastroUpland, CACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 190 lbReturning

#6Christian PierceFontana, CAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning

#38Isaiah RubinLong Beach, CAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 195 lbReturning

#23Kendarius ReddickThomasville, GAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning

#9Kennedy UrlacherChandler, AZS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 200 lbReturning

#30Marquis GallegosNorth Hollywood, CAS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning

#8Desman Stephens IIClarkston, MILB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 250 lbReturning

#26Elijah NewbyCheshire, CTLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbReturning

#15Jadyn WalkerPortage, MILB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 240 lbReturning

#57Roman MarchettiSanta Ana, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning

#14Ta'Mere RobinsonPittsburgh, PALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbReturning

#27Riley WormleyEuless, TXRB0.4 pts51% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 190 lbReturning

#41Cian McKelveyPrescott, AZRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 185 lbReturning

#45Caden ChittendenLas Vegas, NVPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbReturning

#36Rey SanchezCarson, CAP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning

#48Ryon SayeriWest Hills, CAP0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning

#93William WeisbergLos Angeles, CAP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 190 lbReturning

#53Luke BrownChina Spring, TXLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbReturning

#7Sam HuardBellevue, WAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 64% conf.6′1″ · 205 lbReturning

#28James JohnsonHuntington Beach, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning

#66Breck KolojayDenver, COOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 310 lbNew / unverified

#78Chase DenizSan Diego, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 315 lbNew / unverified

#57Esun TafaWest Valley, UTOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 325 lbNew / unverified

#76John FifitaMountain View, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 380 lbNew / unverified

#56Kannon SmithAurora, COOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 310 lbNew / unverified

#71Keenyi PepeLong Beach, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 330 lbNew / unverified

#64Ryan PauleyCarmel, INOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 320 lbNew / unverified

#51Vlad DyakonovFolsom, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 295 lbNew / unverified

#51Andrew WilliamsLos Angeles, CADE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 220 lbNew / unverified

#54Ethan BroughamDana Point, CADE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 245 lbNew / unverified

#94Luke WafleMiddletown, NJDE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 265 lbNew / unverified

#92Sam SmithSan Juan Capistrano, CADE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 235 lbNew / unverified

#49Simote KatoangaOceanside, CADE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 275 lbNew / unverified

#35Ty SwansonLadera Ranch, CADE0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbNew / unverified

#44Braeden JonesChicago, ILDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 270 lbNew / unverified

#45Jaimeon WinfieldMeridian, MSDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 320 lbNew / unverified

#90Jake JohnsonProsper, TXDT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbNew / unverified

#96Jordan AbarcaSeal Beach, CADT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 260 lbNew / unverified

#52Tomuhini TopuiInglewood, CADT0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 320 lbNew / unverified

#1Ethan FeasterShreveport, LAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbNew / unverified

#49Grant WoodsThousand Oaks, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 230 lbNew / unverified

#89Griffin BrahmDana Point, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbNew / unverified

#17Kayden Dixon-WyattHayward, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbNew / unverified

#80Luc WeaverLos Angeles, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbNew / unverified

#86Luke DegnerLaguna Beach, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbNew / unverified

#40Marcus SungIrvine, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 205 lbNew / unverified

#82Roderick TezenoOpelousas, LAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 190 lbNew / unverified

#4Trent MosleyChicago, ILWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbNew / unverified

#85Tron BakerLong Beach, CAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbNew / unverified

#87Josiah JeffersonSan Diego, CATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbNew / unverified

#44Manoah LeiatoHuntington Beach, CATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 255 lbNew / unverified

#19Mark BowmanCastle Rock, COTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 245 lbNew / unverified

#38Patrick O'BrienSan Diego, CATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 240 lbNew / unverified

#19Brandon LockhartLos Angeles, CACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 175 lbNew / unverified

#48Derek DinizPebble Beach, CACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbNew / unverified

#2Elbert Hill IVCleveland, OHCB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbNew / unverified

#34Jayden CrowderEastvale, CACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbNew / unverified

#29Joshua Holland IILong Beach, CACB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbNew / unverified

#31Madden RiordanPasadena, CAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 180 lbNew / unverified

#39Peter SciarrinoManhattan Beach, CAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbNew / unverified

#36Peyton DyerDecatur, GAS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbNew / unverified

#47Austin EngroffBoise, IDLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 215 lbNew / unverified

#46Nick De FinaSan Diego, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbNew / unverified

#41Ryan O'ConnellFairfield, CTLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbNew / unverified

#24Shaun ScottFontana, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 240 lbNew / unverified

#22Talanoa IliChino, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbNew / unverified

#50Taylor JohnsonSan Bernardino, CALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 220 lbNew / unverified

#21Alex MedynNorco, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbNew / unverified

#15Jonas WilliamsChicago, ILQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbNew / unverified

#29Will DohertyManhattan Beach, CAQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbNew / unverified

#6Deshonne RedeauxCarson, CARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 205 lbNew / unverified

#30Kayne MillerCalabasas, CARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′8″ · 185 lbNew / unverified

#22Shahn AlstonPainesville, OHRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 220 lbNew / unverified

#34Tyson ParkAustin, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′6″ · 195 lbNew / unverified

#39Nate HillenburgIndianapolis, INP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 220 lbNew / unverified

#46Dylan BlackReno, NVLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 220 lbNew / unverified

2026 schedule

The path that shapes the projection.

The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.

WeekOpponentSiteDate / result

San José StateNon-conference · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · 4M 16–38 · 90% win

HomeAug 293:00 PM EDT · model ↗1

Fresno StateNon-conference · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · 4M 17–35 · 84% win

HomeSep 49:00 PM EDT · model ↗2

LouisianaNon-conference · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · 4M 16–39 · 90% win

HomeSep 1211:00 PM EDT · model ↗3

RutgersConference · SHI Stadium · 4M 33–23 · 70% win

AwaySep 193:30 PM EDT · model ↗4

OregonConference · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · 4M 28–25 · 44% win

HomeSep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5

WashingtonConference · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · 4M 24–29 · 61% win

HomeOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6

Penn StateConference · Beaver Stadium · 4M 26–27 · 48% win

AwayOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗8

WisconsinConference · Camp Randall Stadium · 4M 30–21 · 70% win

AwayOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗9

Ohio StateConference · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · 4M 29–23 · 38% win

HomeOct 3112:00 AM EDT · model ↗11

IndianaConference · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · 4M 23–31 · 34% win

AwayNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12

MarylandConference · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · 4M 18–34 · 81% win

HomeNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13

UCLAConference · Rose Bowl · 4M 31–22 · 70% win

AwayNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗

Range of outcomes

The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.

Floor case6 wins

Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.

4M midpoint8 wins

The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.

Ceiling case10 wins

Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.

The betting lens

Price and matchup decide the play.

No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about USC diverges from the football conditions required to cover.

Back them when

The matchup preserves the talent edge, the opponent cannot create pressure with four, and the price has not already charged a contender tax.

Pass or fade when

A difficult opponent is paired with short rest, uncertain quarterback availability or a line that assumes best-case continuity.

Watch first

Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.

Season-defining questionWill line play and quarterback consistency survive the Big Ten's deepest tier of contenders?