The 2026 outlook
Can the roster hold its efficiency when the schedule produces SEC-level stress almost every week?
Alabama opens No. 11 nationally and No. 4 of 16 in the SEC. The 4M baseline rates the roster 15.9 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 6.6 regular-season wins.
Alabama has a credible playoff profile, but not enough separation to absorb repeated mistakes. Its best version can win a high-level matchup; the question is whether that version appears often enough to navigate the conference race without spending the playoff margin for error too early.
The roster grades comfortably above the national average. The personnel question is not whether there is talent; it is whether new starters can inherit the high-leverage jobs—quarterback decisions, pass protection, third-down coverage and pass-rush production—without an early efficiency drop.
The schedule is a defining variable: it projects No. 10 nationally, with No. 1 representing the hardest slate. Alabama can play good football and still finish below public expectations if it loses the possession battles in its highest-leverage games. This is why the 6.6-win projection may look conservative relative to the power rating.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachKalen DeBoer54–14 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger17 in · 24 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#5Noah RogersRaleigh, NCWR0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 201 lbTransfer infrom NC State
#75Ethan FieldsGeismar, LAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 319 lbTransfer infrom Ole Miss
#54Jayvin JamesDeerfield Beach, FLOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 318 lbTransfer infrom Mississippi State
#79Kaden StrayhornNovi, MIOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 313 lbTransfer infrom Michigan
#71Nick BrooksCedar Rapids, IAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 339 lbTransfer infrom Texas
#55Racin DelgattyLa Canada Flintridge, CAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 301 lbTransfer infrom Cal Poly
#72Ty HaywoodDenton, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 312 lbTransfer infrom Michigan
#40Josh FordStillwater, OKTE0.5 pts45% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 267 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State
#91Caleb SmithBirmingham, ALDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 277 lbTransfer infrom Washington
#1Devan ThompkinsTracy, CADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 298 lbTransfer infrom USC
#22Kedrick Bingley-JonesConcord, NCDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 302 lbTransfer infrom Mississippi State
#99Terrance GreenCypress, TXDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 319 lbTransfer infrom Oregon
#28Carmelo O'NealAtlanta, GADB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 209 lbTransfer infrom Mercer
#7Caleb WoodsonHaymarket, VALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 238 lbTransfer infrom Virginia Tech
#9Desmond UmeozuluUpper Marlboro, MDLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 253 lbTransfer infrom South Carolina
#20Khalifa KeithBirmingham, ALRB0.3 pts42% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 232 lbTransfer infrom App State
#90Lorcan QuinnDonaghmorePK0.3 pts38% role · 52% conf.6′1″ · 196 lbTransfer infrom Marshall
#10Austin MackFolsom, CAQB4.2 pts75% starter · 64% conf.6′6″ · 232 lbReturning
#1Ryan Coleman-WilliamsSaraland, ALWR0.8 pts59% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 182 lbReturning
#3Lotzeir BrooksMillville, NJWR0.7 pts54% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 193 lbReturning
#7Rico ScottHarrisburg, PAWR0.7 pts50% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 198 lbReturning
#81Kaleb EdwardsEl Dorado Hills, CATE0.7 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 268 lbReturning
#87Danny Lewis Jr.New Iberia, LATE0.6 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 255 lbReturning
#69Baker HickmanTuscaloosa, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 334 lbReturning
#68Billy RobyHuntsville, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 280 lbReturning
#50Casey PoeLindale, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 324 lbReturning
#62Davis PetersonBirmingham, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 268 lbReturning
#77Jackson LloydCarmel, CAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 317 lbReturning
#59JD MartinPisgah, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 266 lbReturning
#53Mac SmithBirmingham, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 300 lbReturning
#52Mal Waldrep Jr.Seale, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 322 lbReturning
#64Michael CarrollBradenton, FLOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 318 lbReturning
#70William SandersBrookwood, ALOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 315 lbReturning
#9Marshall PritchettCharleston, SCTE0.6 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 246 lbReturning
#94Edric HillKansas City, MODL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 287 lbReturning
#14Fatutoa HenryLawndale, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 272 lbReturning
#88Isaia FagaPhenix City, ALDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 291 lbReturning
#92Jeremiah BeamanBirmingham, ALDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 303 lbReturning
#90London SimmonsJackson, MSDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 302 lbReturning
#25Steve Bolo MboumouaSt. Augustin, PQDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 301 lbReturning
#4Daniel HillMeridian, MSRB0.5 pts66% role · 76% conf.6′1″ · 236 lbReturning
#6Kevin RileyNorthport, ALRB0.5 pts63% role · 76% conf.5′11″ · 198 lbReturning
#42Ben JacksonMobile, ALWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 165 lbReturning
#31Cooper MollisonVestavia Hills, ALWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 177 lbReturning
#30Derek MeadowsLas Vegas, NVWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 215 lbReturning
#23MJ ChirgwinHuntington Beach, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 195 lbReturning
#85Jack SammarcoCincinnati, OHTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 263 lbReturning
#46Peyton FoxPelham, ALTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbReturning
#88Jay LindseyButler, ALTE0.5 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 258 lbReturning
#18Bray HubbardOcean Springs, MSDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 217 lbReturning
#38Brody McCutcheonMoody, ALDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 180 lbReturning
#19Chuck McDonald IIISanta Ana, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 197 lbReturning
#5Dijon Lee Jr.Carson, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 204 lbReturning
#21Dre Kirkpatrick Jr.Gadsden, ALDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 205 lbReturning
#32Griffin HansonFlorence, ALDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 177 lbReturning
#13Ivan TaylorWinter Garden, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 196 lbReturning
#3Keon SabbGlassboro, NJDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 208 lbReturning
#34London HillMobile, ALDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbReturning
#6Red MorganPhenix City, ALDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 189 lbReturning
#27Walter Sansing IIIHomewood, ALDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 182 lbReturning
#2Zabien BrownSanta Ana, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 194 lbReturning
#12Zavier MinceyDaytona Beach, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 206 lbReturning
#35Abduall Sanders Jr.Santa Ana, CALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 228 lbReturning
#23Cayden JonesAsheville, NCLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 231 lbReturning
#15Duke Johnson IIEastman, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 232 lbReturning
#20Jah-Marien LathamReform, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 270 lbReturning
#39Jake IvieAlabaster, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 188 lbReturning
#8Justin HillCincinnati, OHLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 244 lbReturning
#82Lane WhisenhuntVestavia Hills, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbReturning
#4Luke MetzHoschton, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 233 lbReturning
#36QB ReeseBirmingham, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 229 lbReturning
#0Yhonzae PierreEufaula, ALLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 253 lbReturning
#0AK DearQuitman, MSRB0.4 pts53% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 214 lbReturning
#29Fredrick MooreCypress, TXRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 170 lbReturning
#19John CooperMountain Brook, ALQB0.3 pts8% starter · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#13John GazzanigaRancho Santa Margarita, CAQB0.3 pts8% starter · 40% conf.6′7″ · 245 lbReturning
#12Keelon RussellDuncanville, TXQB0.3 pts8% starter · 40% conf.6′3″ · 201 lbReturning
#98Tucker CorneliusTuscaloosa, ALPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 208 lbReturning
#32Alex AsparuhovFresno, CAP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 202 lbReturning
#95Anderson GreenTuscaloosa, ALP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 201 lbReturning
#44Alex RozierHattiesburg, MSLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 215 lbReturning
#45Jay WilliamsRinggold, GALS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 210 lbReturning
#31Conor TaltyChicago, ILPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.6′1″ · 201 lbReturning
#57Bear FretwellBrooklet, GAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 290 lbNew / unverified
#63Bryson CooleyLaurel, MSOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 325 lbNew / unverified
#73Chris BookerAtlanta, GAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#66Jared GrahamAtlanta, GAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#65Tyrell MillerUnion City, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 322 lbNew / unverified
#32Corey Howard Jr.Valdosta, GADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#95Leslie BlackStatesboro, GADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#93Malique FranklinDaphne, ALDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 252 lbNew / unverified
#26Mhari JohnsonMuscle Shoals, ALDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 286 lbNew / unverified
#44Nolan WilsonPicayune, MSDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 250 lbNew / unverified
#24Amari SabbGlassboro, NJWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′9″ · 155 lbNew / unverified
#26Aubrey WalkerBirmingham, ALWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#8Cederian MorganAlexander City, ALWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 223 lbNew / unverified
#27Elijah MurrayBuford, GAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#21Maurice Mathis Jr.Warner Robins, GAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 186 lbNew / unverified
#14Tyler HendersonVicksburg, MSWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 173 lbNew / unverified
#83Warner RossDalton, GAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 183 lbNew / unverified
#80Jaxon ShuttlesworthChelsea, ALTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#86Jude CasconeMarietta, GATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 224 lbNew / unverified
#18Mack SutterDunlap, ILTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 249 lbNew / unverified
#31George French IIBirmingham, ALDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#10Jireh EdwardsLargo, MDDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 221 lbNew / unverified
#16Jorden EdmondsMarietta, GADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 188 lbNew / unverified
#29Nick ShermanTuscaloosa, ALDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 201 lbNew / unverified
#24Rihyael KelleyCincinnati, OHDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 196 lbNew / unverified
#17Zyan GibsonGadsden, ALDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 194 lbNew / unverified
#30Bubba OdomParrish, ALLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#41Jamarion MatthewsHuntsville, ALLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 252 lbNew / unverified
#11Xavier GriffinGainesville, GALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 222 lbNew / unverified
#34Zay HallTuscaloosa, ALLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 238 lbNew / unverified
#15Jett ThomallaOmaha, NEQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′4″ · 229 lbNew / unverified
#11Tayden-Evan KaawaMoloka'i, HIQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′5″ · 238 lbNew / unverified
#13EJ CrowellJackson, ALRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 221 lbNew / unverified
#17Trae'shawn BrownHuntsville, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 201 lbNew / unverified
#33Adam WatfordDothan, ALP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 188 lbNew / unverified
#47Eli DeutschFranklin, WILS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#49Ethan StangleBel Air, MDLS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 219 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1East CarolinaNon-conference · Bryant-Denny Stadium · 4M 18–32 · 78% win
HomeSep 512:00 PM EDT · model ↗2
KentuckyConference · Kroger Field · 4M 29–22 · 65% win
AwaySep 123:30 PM EDT · model ↗3
Florida StateNon-conference · Bryant-Denny Stadium · 4M 22–31 · 69% win
HomeSep 193:30 PM EDT · model ↗4
South CarolinaConference · Bryant-Denny Stadium · 4M 21–29 · 67% win
HomeSep 2612:00 AM EDT · model ↗5
Mississippi StateConference · Davis Wade Stadium · 4M 29–22 · 67% win
AwayOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
GeorgiaConference · Bryant-Denny Stadium · 4M 27–25 · 45% win
HomeOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗7
TennesseeConference · Neyland Stadium · 4M 26–28 · 46% win
AwayOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
Texas A&MConference · Bryant-Denny Stadium · 4M 25–26 · 51% win
HomeOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
LSUConference · Tiger Stadium (LA) · 4M 25–24 · 51% win
AwayNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
VanderbiltConference · FirstBank Stadium · 4M 28–27 · 52% win
AwayNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
ChattanoogaNon-conference · Bryant-Denny Stadium · 4M 6–46 · 99% win
HomeNov 212:00 PM EST · model ↗13AuburnConference · Bryant-Denny Stadium · 4M 21–28 · 64% win
HomeNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case4 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint7 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case9 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Alabama diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The matchup preserves the talent edge, the opponent cannot create pressure with four, and the price has not already charged a contender tax.
A difficult opponent is paired with short rest, uncertain quarterback availability or a line that assumes best-case continuity.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionCan the roster hold its efficiency when the schedule produces SEC-level stress almost every week?