The 2026 outlook
Does this team have the quarterback play and defensive depth to win the American?
North Texas opens No. 67 nationally and No. 4 of 14 in the American. The 4M baseline rates the roster 0.1 points above an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 6.1 regular-season wins.
North Texas sits near the model's break-even line, where quarterback development and close-game execution matter more than brand. A bowl is attainable, but the margin is too thin to assume last year's record—or a splashy transfer class—will repeat without supporting efficiency.
There are enough playable pieces to compete, but the roster needs a dependable identity. Stable quarterback efficiency or an obvious line-of-scrimmage advantage would lift the ceiling. Portal additions matter only if their roles translate into protection, pressure or explosive-play creation.
The schedule grades No. 77 nationally—enough resistance to expose weaknesses without defining the entire year. A small group of swing games should determine whether North Texas beats its 6.1-win projection, placing extra value on special teams, fourth-down decisions and late-game quarterback play.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachNeal Brown26–24 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityNew head coachReplaces Eric Morris
Portal ledger49 in · 38 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#2Tayven JacksonGreenwood, INQB3.2 pts63% starter · 76% conf.6′4″ · 212 lbTransfer infrom UCF
#9Chaston DittaAustin, TXQB1.6 pts36% starter · 64% conf.6′0″ · 193 lbTransfer infrom East Carolina
#0Corri MillinerAlexander City, ALWR0.8 pts56% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 170 lbTransfer infrom UAB
#1Jahiem WhiteYork, PARB0.7 pts74% role · 64% conf.5′7″ · 187 lbTransfer infrom West Virginia
#19Grayson O'BaraDenton, TXWR0.7 pts52% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 202 lbTransfer infrom Dartmouth
#16James TyreSuwanee, GAWR0.7 pts51% role · 64% conf.5′8″ · 171 lbTransfer infrom Western Carolina
#4Nick OshoBurnaby, BCRB0.7 pts74% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 217 lbTransfer infrom Indiana State
#57Chandler StrongWarner Robins, GAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 288 lbTransfer infrom Georgia Southern
#54Henry FenukuFort Worth, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Missouri
#50Jahzari PriesterChesapeake, VAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 325 lbTransfer infrom Virginia Tech
#71Johnny Williams IVMacon, GAOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 329 lbTransfer infrom Missouri
#72Neto UmeozuluAllen, TXOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 329 lbTransfer infrom Texas
#7Max ReeseChicago, ILTE0.5 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 245 lbTransfer infrom Mississippi State
#23Christian LorenzoDekalb, ILDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 297 lbTransfer infrom Illinois State
#98Curlee Thomas IVFort Worth, TXDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 259 lbTransfer infrom California
#10David OnuohaCliffwood, NJDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 239 lbTransfer infrom Massachusetts
#91Davion RhodesCamilla, GADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 248 lbTransfer infrom Georgia Southern
#15Justin BentonAtlanta, GADL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 298 lbTransfer infrom East Carolina
#11Steven CurtisPalm Beach, FLDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 264 lbTransfer infrom Minnesota
#6Udoka EzeaniRichmond, TXDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 218 lbTransfer infrom UTEP
#88Wesley HudsonLancaster, TXDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 294 lbTransfer infrom Central Oklahoma
#17Brec LongCopan, OKTE0.5 pts40% role · 64% conf.6′4″ · 229 lbTransfer infrom South Alabama
#6Josiah MartinCorinth, TXWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 173 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma
#13Justin StevensonPhiladelphia, PAWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 196 lbTransfer infrom Utah
#3TJ ChukwurahArlington, TXWR0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 202 lbTransfer infrom Black Hills State
#85Drew ClemensKansas City, MOTE0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom Utah
#8Caden JenkinsLewisville, TXCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 177 lbTransfer infrom Baylor
#19Jaden AllenAledo, TXCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 170 lbTransfer infrom Arkansas
#1Keshawn DavilaTampa, FLCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 161 lbTransfer infrom Arkansas
#24Peyton TaylorAurora, COCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 167 lbTransfer infrom Emporia State
#27Zach JohnsonTampa, FLCB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 179 lbTransfer infrom Southeastern Louisiana
#0Brandon JonesHouston, TXS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 183 lbTransfer infrom McNeese
#9Cameren JenkinsLewisville, TXS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 199 lbTransfer infrom Baylor
#4CJ CoombesBellefonte, DES0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 212 lbTransfer infrom Wofford
#13Graham GillespieCypress, TXS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 201 lbTransfer infrom Texas
#25Ja'Bree BickhamMcKinney, TXS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 184 lbTransfer infrom Boise State
#21Jason Cross Jr.Pittsburgh, PAS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 178 lbTransfer infrom West Virginia
#2Taye SeymoreFort Walton Beach, FLS0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 206 lbTransfer infrom Auburn
#7Aaron AlexanderBelleville, MILB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 236 lbTransfer infrom Arkansas State
#17Cedric RobertsFort Valley, GALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 226 lbTransfer infrom Alcorn State
#30Chantz JohnsonFort Pierce, FLLB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 231 lbTransfer infrom Texas State
#3Zakye BarkerNorcross, GALB0.4 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 225 lbTransfer infrom SMU
#29Brendon HaygoodWylie, TXRB0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 190 lbTransfer infrom Missouri
#22Colin PageAustin, TXRB0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Texas
#90Dominic De FreitasNappanee, INPK0.3 pts38% role · 52% conf.6′0″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom App State
#37Ian RatliffHumble, TXP0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 185 lbTransfer infrom App State
#47Jacob PoffOrange, CALS0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 181 lbTransfer infrom App State
#62Amarion BerryRowlett, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 296 lbReturning
#70Brody HamiltonDenton, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 307 lbReturning
#53Dylan ShawCorpus Christi, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 320 lbReturning
#73Julio Madero IVOdessa, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 320 lbReturning
#68Keon JohnsonAkron, OHOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 370 lbReturning
#64Roberto RodriguezPasadena, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 301 lbReturning
#69Ryan KruegerHurst, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 304 lbReturning
#66Willie GoodacreDenton, TXOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 335 lbReturning
#14Kyle KochDripping Springs, TXWR0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 199 lbReturning
#96AJ BrownDallas, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 295 lbReturning
#99Avion CarterAmarillo, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 270 lbReturning
#42Brayden KnoxOklahoma City, OKDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 256 lbReturning
#94Caleb LathanPlano, TXDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 290 lbReturning
#97Demetrie MorganFort Myers, FLDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 230 lbReturning
#95Rudy Vargas Jr.Junction City, KSDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 287 lbReturning
#93Terrell WashingtonLynchburg, VADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 305 lbReturning
#80Baron TiptonCoppell, TXWR0.5 pts55% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 206 lbReturning
#84Jackson MuckelroyHouston, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 211 lbReturning
#8Shandon KingHouston, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 191 lbReturning
#86Zachary YangNorth Richland Hills, TXWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 176 lbReturning
#82Connor VaughnFlower Mound, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 262 lbReturning
#88Victor AderungboyeMissouri City, TXTE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 247 lbReturning
#32Anthony Benford IIDenton, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 188 lbReturning
#5Chase CanadaHahnville, LACB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 187 lbReturning
#20Taylor StarlingDallas, TXCB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 181 lbReturning
#16BJ Allen Jr.Aledo, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 198 lbReturning
#14Bryce GarzaWolfforth, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 195 lbReturning
#22Julian Knox Sr.Fort Worth, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbReturning
#29Kamdon McFarlandMansfield, TXS0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 211 lbReturning
#11Dalton CarnesCollege Station, TXWR0.5 pts46% role · 64% conf.5′9″ · 176 lbReturning
#34Brenden ReeseLongview, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 231 lbReturning
#36Jaden ManningMansfield, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 228 lbReturning
#51Keelene BradleyFort Worth, TXLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 237 lbReturning
#36Keenan Jackson Jr.Haltom City, TXRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 171 lbReturning
#49Brodie ScogginsCoppell, TXLS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 228 lbReturning
#12Chris Jimerson Jr.Fort Worth, TXQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbReturning
#56Austin OdetteGrapevine, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 245 lbNew / unverified
#77Caden VoltaireCape Coral, FLOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′7″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#61Drew CunninghamSouthlake, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 296 lbNew / unverified
#74Francisco AdamsFlower Mound, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′6″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#78KC EkwuSunnyvale, TXOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 305 lbNew / unverified
#41Cason ApplewhitePalestine, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#52Courage Osawe Jr.Sparks, NVDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 299 lbNew / unverified
#44Dylan WilliamsDuncanville, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 285 lbNew / unverified
#92Grady HolmesRowlett, TXDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#18Mo DiawaraBrooklyn Park, MNDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 268 lbNew / unverified
#58Nolan ClarkGlen Rock, NJDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 292 lbNew / unverified
#15Andy JeanMiami, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 181 lbNew / unverified
#87Eli NikolasBoerne, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#18Lathon LatiolaisProsper, TXWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#89Jerious SingletaryHuntsville, TXTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#31Aaden LittleDallas, TXS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#12Tyson WilsonGilmer, TXS0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 179 lbNew / unverified
#40Kailer PettijohnMcKinney, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
#53Rohan SturgeonAustin, TXLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 225 lbNew / unverified
#10Ziondre WilliamsPine Bluff, ARQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.5′11″ · 170 lbNew / unverified
#20Adarion NettlesArlington, TXRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′8″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#48Michael Taylor IIHouston, TXPK0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′8″ · 175 lbNew / unverified
#46Luke CrudgingtonThe Woodlands, TXP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1IndianaNon-conference · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · 4M 18–37 · 14% win
AwaySep 512:00 PM EDT · model ↗2
UNLVNon-conference · DATCU Stadium · 4M 27–30 · 56% win
HomeSep 123:45 PM EDT · model ↗3
Texas StateNon-conference · Bobcat Stadium (TX) · 4M 27–30 · 43% win
AwaySep 1912:00 PM EDT · model ↗4
Houston ChristianNon-conference · DATCU Stadium · 4M 13–42 · 94% win
HomeSep 267:30 PM EDT · model ↗5TulsaConference · Chapman Stadium · 4M 29–24 · 61% win
AwayOct 19:00 PM EDT · model ↗6
CharlotteConference · DATCU Stadium · 4M 18–35 · 83% win
HomeOct 1012:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
NavyConference · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium · 4M 29–28 · 50% win
AwayOct 243:30 PM EDT · model ↗9
Florida AtlanticConference · DATCU Stadium · 4M 24–32 · 68% win
HomeOct 297:30 PM EDT · model ↗10
RiceConference · DATCU Stadium · 4M 20–33 · 76% win
HomeNov 712:00 AM EST · model ↗11
UTSAConference · Alamodome · 4M 26–29 · 44% win
AwayNov 1412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
TulaneConference · Yulman Stadium · 4M 26–29 · 44% win
AwayNov 2112:00 AM EST · model ↗13
UABConference · DATCU Stadium · 4M 22–33 · 73% win
HomeNov 2812:00 AM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case4 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint6 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case8 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about North Texas diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The number is below a full possession and North Texas's best unit attacks a verified opponent weakness.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Early-down success rate, pressure allowed and defensive explosive-play rate. Two stable categories would justify an upgrade.
Season-defining questionDoes this team have the quarterback play and defensive depth to win the American?