The 2026 outlook
Will experienced line play and close-game execution create a MAC breakthrough?
Eastern Michigan opens No. 119 nationally and No. 6 of 13 in the MAC. The 4M baseline rates the roster 11.7 points below an average FBS team on a neutral field and projects 5.1 regular-season wins.
Eastern Michigan begins below the FBS average, so progress should first appear in functional line play, fewer negative snaps and cleaner late-game execution. That does not make this team an automatic fade; large spreads become valuable when the favorite lacks the pace or explosiveness to create margin.
Depth is the central concern. Transfers can raise the first unit quickly, but the two-deep has to hold up across twelve games. The first month should reveal whether the rebuild created real competition or simply moved uncertainty from one position group to another.
The schedule projects among the country's most manageable at No. 126. That creates upside in the win column, but also a pricing trap: the record can improve faster than the underlying team quality, inviting bettors to pay for results that came against limited resistance.
Personnel command center
Who is back, who arrived and who has to matter.
The roster is grouped by continuity because returning snaps and proven transfer production are more useful than raw headcount. “New / unverified” means the player did not match last season's roster or the incoming portal file—not that the player is necessarily a freshman.
Head coachChris Creighton31–32 over the available CFBD career window
Staff continuityReturning head coachContinuity is treated as context, not an automatic upgrade.
Portal ledger12 in · 26 outImpact is weighted by rating, position and prior usage.
Position-group modelPremium roles separated.Fifty is FBS average. Quarterback includes the modeled starter probability, not merely the best name in the room.
4M player valueHighest-leverage rolesMaximum point value assumes the player is fully unavailable and is reduced by status probability.
PlayerPos.4M valueSizeContinuity
#72Cole DellingerClarkston, MIOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 295 lbTransfer infrom Michigan State
#75Elijha PayneLas Vegas, NVOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 315 lbTransfer infrom Delaware State
#55Guzzy KayedNovi, MIOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 316 lbTransfer infrom Saint Francis (PA)
#71Tyler BrumfieldSalem, UTOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 305 lbTransfer infrom Oklahoma State
#68Tyler McMillanDetroit, MIOL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 325 lbTransfer infrom Illinois
#98Joseph OluwayemiDallas, TXDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 310 lbTransfer infrom Harding
#58Peyton ChristianKilgore, TXDL0.5 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 300 lbTransfer infrom Lamar
#28Braydon BennettGreenville, SCRB0.4 pts48% role · 64% conf.6′2″ · 215 lbTransfer infrom Virginia Tech
#21Malachi JamesWillingboro, NJRB0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 202 lbTransfer infrom Syracuse
#27XaVior TyusPortage, MIRB0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 195 lbTransfer infrom Wayne State
#33Adam SamahaYpsilanti, MIPK0.3 pts38% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 175 lbTransfer infrom Akron
#10Brogan McCaugheyCincinnati, OHQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′1″ · 212 lbTransfer infrom Yale
#1Noah KimCentreville, VAQB4.8 pts94% starter · 76% conf.6′2″ · 186 lbReturning
#5Harold MackFort Wayne, INWR0.8 pts57% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbReturning
#9Joshua LongLos Angeles, CATE0.7 pts56% role · 64% conf.6′5″ · 242 lbReturning
#2Nick DevereauxTroy, MIWR0.7 pts54% role · 64% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbReturning
#3Benson ProsperHollywood, FLWR0.7 pts51% role · 64% conf.5′10″ · 186 lbReturning
#88Tanner LemasterWashington Court House, OHTE0.6 pts47% role · 64% conf.6′6″ · 245 lbReturning
#62Adham AbourayaDowningtown, PAOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 306 lbReturning
#77Cole PowellErie, COOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′6″ · 295 lbReturning
#78Dennis Strey Jr.Paw Paw, MIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′7″ · 312 lbReturning
#66Joshua AndersonFlorissant, MOOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 328 lbReturning
#50Kevin WojciechowskiOak Creek, WIOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 307 lbReturning
#65Nicholas GallegosNaperville, ILOL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 294 lbReturning
#96Antoniyo SmithAtlanta, GADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 278 lbReturning
#33Carter EvansCrystal Lake, ILDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 264 lbReturning
#90Hector GonzalezMonterreyDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 245 lbReturning
#55Javon ThomasEast Lansing, MIDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′4″ · 280 lbReturning
#85Jefferson AdamYpsilanti, MIDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 260 lbReturning
#5Makhi GilbertPhenix City, ALDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 282 lbReturning
#43Marvell EgglestonDetroit, MIDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 225 lbReturning
#95Milan ColvinWichita, KSDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 306 lbReturning
#64Noah PattersonSouth Point, OHDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 295 lbReturning
#54Quincy ByasSt. Louis, MODL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 230 lbReturning
#91Reggie GardnerSouthfield, MIDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 288 lbReturning
#88Ronn HardinCleveland, OHDL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 220 lbReturning
#99Warren-Stevens TayouInglewood, CADL0.6 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 290 lbReturning
#24Joey MattordHartland, MIRB0.5 pts49% role · 64% conf.6′0″ · 192 lbReturning
#11Antonio FloydAtlanta, GAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 182 lbReturning
#86Dalin WilkinsDayton, OHWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 205 lbReturning
#18Mekhi FoxPasadena, CAWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 194 lbReturning
#82Nate LymanKings Mills, OHWR0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 197 lbReturning
#16Jackson HoltOakdale, CATE0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′5″ · 248 lbReturning
#6Bryce LlewellynMcCordsville, INDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 207 lbReturning
#16Caleb ColeyWarner Robins, GADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 162 lbReturning
#17Caleb DobbsCocoa, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 162 lbReturning
#9Davion WilliamsFrostproof, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 183 lbReturning
#18Dior BoydWilmington, DEDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 167 lbReturning
#29Donmiel RogersCincinnati, OHDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 175 lbReturning
#23Eli LovettHuber Heights, OHDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′0″ · 198 lbReturning
#8Jaivian NormanSpringfield, OHDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 185 lbReturning
#13Jason MarshallTrenton, MIDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′3″ · 201 lbReturning
#19Jonnie CarterHollywood, FLDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 210 lbReturning
#4Juan SalasEastvale, CADB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′8″ · 181 lbReturning
#20Ray HesterDetroit, MIDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 190 lbReturning
#10Tylan BoykinAkron, OHDB0.5 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 176 lbReturning
#3Barry ManningStone Mountain, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 212 lbReturning
#40Bryce EliukLinden, MILB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 222 lbReturning
#36Colin MainFrankenmuth, MILB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 218 lbReturning
#45Kadin BaileyJefferson, GALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 230 lbReturning
#46Noah KniggaLawrenceburg, INLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′1″ · 221 lbReturning
#26Solomon BellHometown not listedLB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 200 lbReturning
#11Zach MowchanDillsburg, PALB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.6′2″ · 224 lbReturning
#15Amareon BlueDallas, NCRB0.4 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′6″ · 195 lbReturning
#37Nathan DibertHartland, MIPK0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′10″ · 216 lbReturning
#46Rudy KessingerColumbus, OHPK0.3 pts44% role · 52% conf.6′2″ · 185 lbReturning
#39Daniel HullColumbia, MOP0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′9″ · 193 lbReturning
#42Jack KautzSterling Heights, MILS0.3 pts44% role · 40% conf.5′11″ · 206 lbReturning
#19Bryce ButtonBowling Green, KYQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′2″ · 207 lbReturning
#12Jace StuckeyFairland, INQB0.2 pts4% starter · 40% conf.6′2″ · 197 lbReturning
#59Andrew TrahinFort Wayne, INOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#74Carter MiculkaCorunna, MIOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#56Chad TroxlerBakersfield, CAOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 308 lbNew / unverified
#79Jackson HigginsPort Huron, MIOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#54Nathan HenryAurora, ILOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#76Nily TaylorColumbus, OHOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 295 lbNew / unverified
#52Richardo WourmanLivonia, MIOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 300 lbNew / unverified
#70Samuel AdjinLa Pocatière, PQOL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 292 lbNew / unverified
#53Alijah LaceySavannah, GADL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#94Brandon Simmons Jr.Glassboro, NJDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 280 lbNew / unverified
#50CJ McCoyMascotte, FLDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 287 lbNew / unverified
#97Jahbarri FrostLouisville, KYDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 306 lbNew / unverified
#44Mark DebiakKansas City, KSDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 262 lbNew / unverified
#93Owen EdlenValparaiso, INDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 236 lbNew / unverified
#56RJ AlphonseLake Worth, FLDL0.3 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 237 lbNew / unverified
#83Bacori MinnerDuluth, GAWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 160 lbNew / unverified
#89Carl Jean-BartLake Alfred, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 180 lbNew / unverified
#87CJ MillerMiami, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 185 lbNew / unverified
#84JT BeasleySaltillo, MSWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 198 lbNew / unverified
#85Kozy IsaacTampa, FLWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 178 lbNew / unverified
#25Quinn FracassiHowell, MIWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 162 lbNew / unverified
#80Shawn FishwickCedarville, OHWR0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 190 lbNew / unverified
#44Adon TurnerChico, CATE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#14Armaad SharpEast St. Louis, ILTE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 235 lbNew / unverified
#49Brady SheltonBrighton, MITE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 232 lbNew / unverified
#48Nathan PiggottTroy, MITE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′5″ · 230 lbNew / unverified
#43Payton KokalySaginaw, MITE0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′3″ · 210 lbNew / unverified
#31Antonio Solares-VittiDearborn, MIDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 208 lbNew / unverified
#28Davontey OliverBoynton Beach, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 172 lbNew / unverified
#22Fa'Rel CarterIndianapolis, INDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 178 lbNew / unverified
#24Horace Glenn IIIBoynton Beach, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 165 lbNew / unverified
#35Jabari MondsFort Pierce, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′7″ · 157 lbNew / unverified
#7Jordan ToneyDecatur, GADB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′4″ · 195 lbNew / unverified
#27Marty CollinsMillville, NJDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′10″ · 192 lbNew / unverified
#25Rayquan AdkinsMiami, FLDB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 178 lbNew / unverified
#57Aaron KearseAmericus, GALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 213 lbNew / unverified
#51Elgin McDuffeyJackson, MSLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 232 lbNew / unverified
#42Jonah FlowersSurprise, AZLB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 213 lbNew / unverified
#32Kijon BraxtonFairburn, GALB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 217 lbNew / unverified
#13Nick KinseyAkron, OHQB0.2 pts4% starter · 28% conf.6′2″ · 198 lbNew / unverified
#22Decorie JohnsonOrlando, FLRB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′1″ · 218 lbNew / unverified
#26Nazir Jones-DavisPhiladelphia, PARB0.2 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′0″ · 214 lbNew / unverified
#38Van KrisiloffIndianapolis, INP0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.5′11″ · 167 lbNew / unverified
#41Reeves TaylorDexter, MILS0.1 pts20% role · 28% conf.6′2″ · 200 lbNew / unverified
2026 schedule
The path that shapes the projection.
The model prices every scheduled game individually. Home field, neutral sites, completed results and opponent rating feed the expected-win total shown above.
WeekOpponentSiteDate / result
1Sacramento StateConference · Rynearson Stadium · 4M 24–30 · 63% win
HomeAug 296:30 PM EDT · model ↗1
San José StateNon-conference · Rynearson Stadium · 4M 26–28 · 55% win
HomeSep 46:30 PM EDT · model ↗2
Michigan StateNon-conference · Spartan Stadium · 4M 23–31 · 34% win
AwaySep 123:30 PM EDT · model ↗3
WisconsinNon-conference · Camp Randall Stadium · 4M 20–32 · 26% win
AwaySep 1912:30 PM EDT · model ↗4
LindenwoodNon-conference · Rynearson Stadium · 4M 20–34 · 80% win
HomeSep 261:00 PM EDT · model ↗5MassachusettsConference · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium · 4M 32–22 · 71% win
AwayOct 312:00 AM EDT · model ↗6
AkronConference · InfoCision Stadium · 4M 28–25 · 56% win
AwayOct 103:30 PM EDT · model ↗7
ToledoConference · Rynearson Stadium · 4M 29–23 · 36% win
HomeOct 1712:00 AM EDT · model ↗8
OhioConference · Peden Stadium · 4M 24–30 · 36% win
AwayOct 2412:00 AM EDT · model ↗10
Central MichiganConference · Ford Field · 4M 28–25 · 44% win
NeutralNov 412:00 AM EST · model ↗12
Western MichiganConference · Waldo Stadium · 4M 22–30 · 32% win
AwayNov 177:00 PM EST · model ↗13
Kent StateConference · Rynearson Stadium · 4M 25–29 · 60% win
HomeNov 247:00 PM EST · model ↗
Range of outcomes
The projection is the middle—not the ceiling.
Floor case3 wins
Instability at premium positions turns swing games into losses.
4M midpoint5 wins
The roster performs close to its current power and schedule baseline.
Ceiling case7 wins
Quarterback play and line continuity outperform the preseason prior.
The betting lens
Price and matchup decide the play.
No team is an automatic bet or fade. The goal is to identify when the market's story about Eastern Michigan diverges from the football conditions required to cover.
The spread is large, the favorite plays slowly, and the game script allows Eastern Michigan to stay inside the number without chasing points.
The offense must play from behind, protect for long-yardage throws and generate explosives simply to reach the market expectation.
Quarterback efficiency, offensive-line cohesion and whether the defense can get off the field without blitzing itself out of structure.
Season-defining questionWill experienced line play and close-game execution create a MAC breakthrough?