Preseason projection

THE ROAD
TO VEGAS.

4M · AUG 26

Twelve projected teams. Four opening-round campus games. Four byes. One clean look at how our preseason board translates to the bracket.

Projection only—not the official CFP selection.

2026 projected field Projected automatic qualifier At-largeNumbers at right are 4M scores

Round 1Campus sites

Game 1 · at higher seed5GeorgiaSEC champ90 12Boise StateHighest G6 champ58

Game 2 · at higher seed6TexasSEC85 11Penn StateBig Ten80

Game 3 · at higher seed7MiamiACC champ84 10Texas A&MSEC81

Game 4 · at higher seed8Texas TechBig 12 champ83 9Ole MissSEC81

QuarterfinalsNew Year's bowls

No. 4 bye · vs. 5/12 winner4Notre DameFirst-round bye91Georgia / Boise State

No. 3 bye · vs. 6/11 winner3IndianaFirst-round bye93Texas / Penn State

No. 2 bye · vs. 7/10 winner2OregonFirst-round bye96Miami / Texas A&M

No. 1 bye · vs. 8/9 winner1Ohio StateFirst-round bye100Texas Tech / Ole Miss

Semifinals + titleThe projection

4M championship matchup

1Ohio StateBig Ten champ100VS2OregonBig Ten96

Ohio State owns the best two-way preseason baseline. Oregon is the model's closest challenger and has the roster depth to survive multiple elite matchups.

Projected championOhio State4M score · 100

The format

How the 2026 bracket works.

The field remains at 12 teams for 2026–27. Selection rank and seed are now aligned: the four highest-ranked teams receive first-round byes, regardless of conference.

01
Six automatic paths
The Power Four champions and highest-ranked Group of Six champion qualify. Notre Dame also receives an automatic bid if ranked in the top 12.
02
Seeds 5–8 host
Opening-round games are played on campus, with No. 12 at No. 5 through No. 9 at No. 8.
03
The top four rest
Seeds 1–4 advance directly to neutral-site quarterfinal bowls. Semifinals follow at bowls, with the title game in Las Vegas on January 25, 2027.

Official format referencesCollege Football Playoff ↗NCAA explainer ↗

THE ROADTO VEGAS.

How the 2026 bracket works.

THE ROAD
TO VEGAS.