Power baseline
The ranking order begins with Blue Chip Analytics' neutral-field preseason ratings, normalized here into a 0–100 4M score.
The 4M 138
EVERY TEAM.
ONE BOARD.
Our preseason read on all 138 FBS programs—built to make the hierarchy clear without pretending August is certainty.
138team files12playoff spots
2026 preseason index
The 4&M Model.
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138 programs4M-CFBD-0.3 · August 26, 2026
RankProgram4M scoreProjected winsPlayoffTier
001Ohio StateBuckeyes · Big Ten4M score100Projected wins10.6Playoff94%National title002OregonDucks · Big Ten4M score95Projected wins10.6Playoff94%National title003Notre DameFighting Irish · Independent4M score93Projected wins11.3Playoff94%National title004GeorgiaBulldogs · SEC4M score91Projected wins10.4Playoff94%National title005IndianaHoosiers · Big Ten4M score88Projected wins10.2Playoff94%National title006MiamiHurricanes · ACC4M score86Projected wins10.6Playoff89%Playoff007Texas TechRed Raiders · Big 124M score86Projected wins11.4Playoff87%Playoff008TexasLonghorns · SEC4M score85Projected wins8.6Playoff90%Playoff009Texas A&MAggies · SEC4M score83Projected wins9.1Playoff84%Playoff010AlabamaCrimson Tide · SEC4M score81Projected wins8.8Playoff82%Playoff011Ole MissRebels · SEC4M score79Projected wins8.2Playoff85%Playoff012USCTrojans · Big Ten4M score79Projected wins8.2Playoff74%Playoff013Penn StateNittany Lions · Big Ten4M score77Projected wins9.6Playoff83%Playoff014OklahomaSooners · SEC4M score77Projected wins7.4Playoff79%Playoff015MichiganWolverines · Big Ten4M score76Projected wins7.8Playoff75%Playoff016UtahUtes · Big 124M score76Projected wins9.9Playoff73%Playoff017WashingtonHuskies · Big Ten4M score75Projected wins8.2Playoff68%Playoff018LSUTigers · SEC4M score75Projected wins7.5Playoff74%Playoff019TennesseeVolunteers · SEC4M score74Projected wins7.7Playoff69%Playoff020MissouriTigers · SEC4M score73Projected wins7.3Playoff54%Playoff021BYUCougars · Big 124M score72Projected wins8.8Playoff68%Playoff022IowaHawkeyes · Big Ten4M score72Projected wins8.2Playoff64%Top 25023VanderbiltCommodores · SEC4M score71Projected wins7.3Playoff51%Top 25024SMUMustangs · ACC4M score70Projected wins9.1Playoff54%Top 25025AuburnTigers · SEC4M score69Projected wins6.6Playoff44%Top 25026FloridaGators · SEC4M score68Projected wins6Playoff47%Top 25027ClemsonTigers · ACC4M score68Projected wins8.3Playoff41%Top 25028South CarolinaGamecocks · SEC4M score67Projected wins6.2Playoff41%Top 25029LouisvilleCardinals · ACC4M score67Projected wins8.1Playoff48%Top 25030ArizonaWildcats · Big 124M score65Projected wins7.5Playoff34%Top 25031Kansas StateWildcats · Big 124M score64Projected wins8.4Playoff44%Top 25032Florida StateSeminoles · ACC4M score64Projected wins6.6Playoff33%Top 25033TCUHorned Frogs · Big 124M score64Projected wins7.4Playoff37%Top 25034IllinoisFighting Illini · Big Ten4M score63Projected wins7.2Playoff44%Top 25035PittsburghPanthers · ACC4M score61Projected wins8Playoff26%Top 25036VirginiaCavaliers · ACC4M score61Projected wins8.2Playoff24%Top 25037NC StateWolfpack · ACC4M score61Projected wins7.8Playoff24%Top 25038Georgia TechYellow Jackets · ACC4M score60Projected wins6.8Playoff24%Top 25039Arizona StateSun Devils · Big 124M score60Projected wins6.6Playoff23%Top 25040NebraskaCornhuskers · Big Ten4M score60Projected wins5.9Playoff25%Top 25041HoustonCougars · Big 124M score59Projected wins7.6Playoff24%Bowl upside042South FloridaBulls · American4M score59Projected wins9.9Playoff11%Bowl upside043ArkansasRazorbacks · SEC4M score59Projected wins3.9Playoff19%Bowl upside044NorthwesternWildcats · Big Ten4M score58Projected wins5.7Playoff14%Bowl upside045KentuckyWildcats · SEC4M score58Projected wins4.1Playoff15%Bowl upside046Boise StateBroncos · Pac-124M score57Projected wins7.4Playoff19%Bowl upside047BaylorBears · Big 124M score57Projected wins5.9Playoff13%Bowl upside048MinnesotaGolden Gophers · Big Ten4M score57Projected wins5.6Playoff20%Bowl upside049WisconsinBadgers · Big Ten4M score57Projected wins6.1Playoff17%Bowl upside050DukeBlue Devils · ACC4M score57Projected wins6.2Playoff19%Bowl upside051KansasJayhawks · Big 124M score56Projected wins6.3Playoff17%Bowl upside052James MadisonDukes · Sun Belt4M score56Projected wins9.8Playoff17%Bowl upside053Iowa StateCyclones · Big 124M score56Projected wins6.4Playoff19%Bowl upside054UCLABruins · Big Ten4M score56Projected wins5.8Playoff12%Bowl upside055Wake ForestDemon Deacons · ACC4M score55Projected wins6Playoff15%Bowl upside056Mississippi StateBulldogs · SEC4M score55Projected wins3.8Playoff14%Bowl upside057San Diego StateAztecs · Pac-124M score54Projected wins7.1Playoff6%Bowl upside058CincinnatiBearcats · Big 124M score54Projected wins5.6Playoff18%Bowl upside059Washington StateCougars · Pac-124M score53Projected wins6Playoff8%Bowl upside060ToledoRockets · MAC4M score53Projected wins9.9Playoff5%Bowl upside061Virginia TechHokies · ACC4M score52Projected wins5.4Playoff12%Bowl upside062UTSARoadrunners · American4M score52Projected wins7.7Playoff9%Bowl upside063MarylandTerrapins · Big Ten4M score52Projected wins5.2Playoff10%Bowl upside064NavyMidshipmen · American4M score52Projected wins8.2Playoff13%Bowl upside065TulaneGreen Wave · American4M score52Projected wins7.6Playoff11%Bowl upside066Texas StateBobcats · Pac-124M score51Projected wins6.5Playoff5%Bowl upside067RutgersScarlet Knights · Big Ten4M score51Projected wins5Playoff7%Bowl upside068UNLVRebels · Mountain West4M score51Projected wins8.6Playoff6%Bowl upside069MemphisTigers · American4M score51Projected wins7.6Playoff8%Bowl upside070East CarolinaPirates · American4M score50Projected wins8.1Playoff8%Middle class071North TexasMean Green · American4M score50Projected wins7.4Playoff7%Middle class072CaliforniaGolden Bears · ACC4M score50Projected wins5.3Playoff9%Middle class073Old DominionMonarchs · Sun Belt4M score49Projected wins8.6Playoff11%Middle class074UCFKnights · Big 124M score49Projected wins5.3Playoff8%Middle class075North CarolinaTar Heels · ACC4M score48Projected wins3.9Playoff4%Middle class076Western MichiganBroncos · MAC4M score48Projected wins8.3Playoff3%Middle class077ColoradoBuffaloes · Big 124M score47Projected wins3.9Playoff7%Middle class078Michigan StateSpartans · Big Ten4M score46Projected wins3.1Playoff6%Middle class079PurdueBoilermakers · Big Ten4M score46Projected wins3.1Playoff3%Middle class080Fresno StateBulldogs · Pac-124M score45Projected wins5.8Playoff3%Middle class081MarshallThundering Herd · Sun Belt4M score44Projected wins8.1Playoff2%Middle class082StanfordCardinal · ACC4M score44Projected wins3.3Playoff2%Middle class083West VirginiaMountaineers · Big 124M score44Projected wins4.2Playoff4%Middle class084ArmyBlack Knights · American4M score43Projected wins6.3Playoff5%Middle class085Appalachian StateMountaineers · Sun Belt4M score43Projected wins5.1Playoff1%Middle class086Utah StateAggies · Pac-124M score42Projected wins4.6Playoff2%Middle class087Western KentuckyHilltoppers · CUSA4M score42Projected wins7.8Playoff2%Middle class088Air ForceFalcons · Mountain West4M score42Projected wins7.7Playoff2%Middle class089Boston CollegeEagles · ACC4M score42Projected wins3.3Playoff2%Middle class090New MexicoLobos · Mountain West4M score42Projected wins7.4Playoff3%Middle class091OhioBobcats · MAC4M score42Projected wins7.8Playoff3%Middle class092Hawai'iRainbow Warriors · Mountain West4M score42Projected wins7.5Playoff2%Middle class093Miami (OH)RedHawks · MAC4M score42Projected wins7.6Playoff2%Middle class094SyracuseOrange · ACC4M score41Projected wins3.2Playoff3%Middle class095North Dakota StateBison · Mountain West4M score40Projected wins7.4Playoff1%Middle class096LibertyFlames · CUSA4M score40Projected wins8.4Playoff1%Middle class097Louisiana TechBulldogs · Sun Belt4M score39Projected wins6.2Playoff2%Middle class098Oklahoma StateCowboys · Big 124M score39Projected wins3.1Playoff4%Middle class099Jacksonville StateGamecocks · CUSA4M score38Projected wins7.8Playoff2%Middle class100UConnHuskies · Independent4M score38Projected wins5.7Playoff1%Middle class101Southern MissGolden Eagles · Sun Belt4M score36Projected wins5.4Playoff1%Rebuild102LouisianaRagin' Cajuns · Sun Belt4M score36Projected wins7.2Playoff1%Rebuild103TroyTrojans · Sun Belt4M score36Projected wins6.1Playoff2%Rebuild104Florida AtlanticOwls · American4M score35Projected wins4.8Playoff1%Rebuild105Oregon StateBeavers · Pac-124M score35Projected wins3.6Playoff1%Rebuild106TulsaGolden Hurricane · American4M score35Projected wins5.4Playoff1%Rebuild107Arkansas StateRed Wolves · Sun Belt4M score34Projected wins6.2Playoff1%Rebuild108TempleOwls · American4M score34Projected wins4.8Playoff1%Rebuild109Central MichiganChippewas · MAC4M score34Projected wins6.3Playoff1%Rebuild110Georgia SouthernEagles · Sun Belt4M score33Projected wins4.8Playoff1%Rebuild111South AlabamaJaguars · Sun Belt4M score32Projected wins5.2Playoff1%Rebuild112WyomingCowboys · Mountain West4M score32Projected wins5.4Playoff1%Rebuild113Florida InternationalPanthers · CUSA4M score31Projected wins6.5Playoff1%Rebuild114Colorado StateRams · Pac-124M score30Projected wins2.8Playoff1%Rebuild115Kennesaw StateOwls · CUSA4M score30Projected wins5.8Playoff1%Rebuild116Coastal CarolinaChanticleers · Sun Belt4M score29Projected wins4.8Playoff1%Rebuild117Eastern MichiganEagles · MAC4M score29Projected wins5.2Playoff1%Rebuild118UABBlazers · American4M score29Projected wins3.7Playoff1%Rebuild119NevadaWolf Pack · Mountain West4M score28Projected wins4.6Playoff1%Rebuild120San José StateSpartans · Mountain West4M score28Projected wins4.8Playoff1%Rebuild121Missouri StateBears · CUSA4M score28Projected wins4.7Playoff1%Rebuild122BuffaloBulls · MAC4M score27Projected wins5.3Playoff1%Rebuild123Sacramento StateHornets · MAC4M score27Projected wins5.1Playoff1%Rebuild124RiceOwls · American4M score26Projected wins2.6Playoff1%Rebuild125DelawareFightin' Blue Hens · CUSA4M score26Projected wins4.4Playoff1%Rebuild126Bowling GreenFalcons · MAC4M score25Projected wins4.4Playoff1%Rebuild127Northern IllinoisHuskies · Mountain West4M score24Projected wins3.6Playoff1%Rebuild128AkronZips · MAC4M score24Projected wins3.9Playoff1%Rebuild129Georgia StatePanthers · Sun Belt4M score23Projected wins3.8Playoff1%Rebuild130Middle TennesseeBlue Raiders · CUSA4M score22Projected wins4Playoff1%Development131Kent StateGolden Flashes · MAC4M score21Projected wins3.3Playoff1%Development132New Mexico StateAggies · CUSA4M score21Projected wins3.6Playoff1%Development133UTEPMiners · Mountain West4M score21Projected wins3Playoff1%Development134UL MonroeWarhawks · Sun Belt4M score20Projected wins3Playoff1%Development135Ball StateCardinals · MAC4M score17Projected wins3.2Playoff1%Development136Sam HoustonBearkats · CUSA4M score15Projected wins2.6Playoff1%Development137Charlotte49ers · American4M score15Projected wins1.7Playoff1%Development138UMassMinutemen · MAC4M score0Projected wins1.3Playoff1%DevelopmentRead the number correctly
A rating is a starting point, not a bet.
Schedule overlay
Opponent difficulty changes the projected win total. A better team can still project fewer wins against a brutal slate.
Editorial overlay
ESPN SP+, CFN previews and verified program reporting frame the quarterback, transfer and coaching questions behind each number; they are not hidden numeric weights.
Market discipline
These are team priors—not automatic wagers. Price, injuries, matchup and weather still decide each game. See the exact formulas and update plan →
Research desk
Transparent method: Blue Chip's power baseline sets the order; schedule strength changes projected wins; national previews and verified reporting supply the editorial context. New information will move the board throughout the season.