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4M-INTELLIGENCE-1.5

Top 25, playoff race and every FBS team now live together. Change the view without hunting through three separate sections.

Updated August 27, 2026

Model-driven projection

The simulated playoff.

4M-INTELLIGENCE-1.5 · Updated Aug 27. The field rebuilds from 10,000 full-season simulations whenever a new model edition is published.

Live projected field Projected automatic qualifier At-largeNumbers at right are 4M scores

Round 1Campus sites

QuarterfinalsNew Year's bowls

No. 4 bye · vs. 5/12 winner4IndianaFirst-round bye · 99.7% in10.27%Georgia / James Madison

No. 3 bye · vs. 6/11 winner3OregonFirst-round bye · 100% in16.87%Miami / Penn State

No. 2 bye · vs. 7/10 winner2Notre DameFirst-round bye · 100% in16.68%Texas Tech / USC

No. 1 bye · vs. 8/9 winner1Ohio StateFirst-round bye · 100% in38.98%Texas / Texas A&M

Semifinals + titleThe model projection

Most likely championship matchup

Ohio State and Notre Dame occupy the two strongest simulated paths today.

Projected championOhio State38.98% title probability

Read the projection

Team ratings, every scheduled game, conference races and postseason rounds all come from the same published edition.

01
Automatic paths
Conference paths and Notre Dame's conditional route are applied after each simulated season.
02
Seeds and hosts
The top four rest while seeds 5–8 host the opening round.
03
Uncertainty stays visible
Playoff and title probabilities describe the full distribution—not one fixed bracket.