Live model hierarchy
THE 4M
TOP 25.
4M-INTELLIGENCE-1.0
Our clearest view of the national title race. Rankings move when the underlying evidence moves—not because a poll needs a weekly storyline.
Updated August 26, 2026No. 1Ohio State100 model score
Highest riserOhio StateSince the previous model run
Playoff cut lineNo. 12 USC37.6% model probability
RankTeamMoveRating4M scoreExp. winsPlayoff
1Ohio StateBig Ten · National title—Rating+27.74M score100Expected wins9.5Playoff100%2OregonBig Ten · National title—Rating+24.84M score95Expected wins8.6Playoff100%3Notre DameIndependent · National title—Rating+23.84M score93Expected wins10.2Playoff100%4GeorgiaSEC · National title—Rating+22.64M score91Expected wins8Playoff99.7%5IndianaBig Ten · National title—Rating+21.24M score88Expected wins8.2Playoff99%6MiamiACC · Playoff—Rating+19.84M score86Expected wins8.5Playoff96.2%7Texas TechBig 12 · Playoff—Rating+19.84M score86Expected wins9.2Playoff98.6%8TexasSEC · Playoff—Rating+19.04M score85Expected wins7.7Playoff83.1%9Texas A&MSEC · Playoff—Rating+18.44M score83Expected wins7.2Playoff66.3%10AlabamaSEC · Playoff—Rating+16.94M score81Expected wins6.8Playoff34.4%11Ole MissSEC · Playoff—Rating+16.14M score79Expected wins6.7Playoff20.6%12USCBig Ten · Playoff—Rating+15.84M score79Expected wins7.8Playoff37.6%13Penn StateBig Ten · Playoff—Rating+14.64M score77Expected wins8.5Playoff43.3%14OklahomaSEC · Playoff—Rating+14.64M score77Expected wins7Playoff15.3%15MichiganBig Ten · Playoff—Rating+14.44M score76Expected wins7.3Playoff12.4%16UtahBig 12 · Playoff—Rating+14.04M score76Expected wins7.7Playoff21%17WashingtonBig Ten · Playoff—Rating+13.74M score75Expected wins6.7Playoff3.2%18LSUSEC · Playoff—Rating+13.44M score75Expected wins6.2Playoff3.1%19TennesseeSEC · Playoff—Rating+13.34M score74Expected wins6.3Playoff3.5%20MissouriSEC · Playoff—Rating+12.44M score73Expected wins6.1Playoff2.1%21BYUBig 12 · Playoff—Rating+12.24M score72Expected wins6.9Playoff5.3%22IowaBig Ten · Top 25—Rating+12.04M score72Expected wins6.7Playoff1.1%23VanderbiltSEC · Top 25—Rating+11.44M score71Expected wins6.3Playoff2.2%24SMUACC · Top 25—Rating+10.64M score70Expected wins7.2Playoff12.5%25AuburnSEC · Top 25—Rating+10.24M score69Expected wins5.6Playoff0.9%